🏇 The Arc, Ascot & Newmarket: The Full Report

How’s it going?

We’ve gone a touch French for this weekend’s Arc de Triomphe meeting at Longchamp in Paris 🇫🇷 - we even caught The Purist nibbling on a croissant.

Bon appétit.

Here’s our starting XI for the month.

What a line-up 🤤

Before hitting the Flat, we’re dipping our toes into the jumps scene for the first time since April. 

Joint-trainers Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies have a good long-term October record over the jumps, and recent years show they did best in the lower-grade handicaps.

Twiston-Davies in October handicaps worth £10,500 or less (last five seasons)

They did equally well in both handicap chases and hurdles, so stay open-minded, although extra attention should go to their younger horses, especially the 5yos.

The Twiston-Davies team have also won with five of their last eight runners during the final week of September and appear to be hitting the ground running this October. 

👉 There are 10 Saturday races on ITV – five from Ascot, three from Newmarket and two at Redcar.

👉 Longchamp stages its two-day Arc de Triomphe meeting on Saturday and Sunday. 

👉 The Arc is on Sunday (3.05) – live on ITV.  

👉 Newmarket stages the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes (1.35). 

👉 Ascot’s most valuable race is the Challenge Cup Handicap (3.35). 

👉 Redcar’s most valuable race of the year is the Two Year Old Trophy (3.20). 

As we crunched the numbers at Paddock Report headquarters midweek, a couple of things stood out regarding Saturday’s racing.

First, just how well the front three in the betting performed at both Ascot and Newmarket’s corresponding fixtures during the last five years.

At Ascot, clear favourites and clear second favourites returned 17 wins from 53 runners for a +£12 profit to £1 level stakes, while Newmarket saw second and third favourites (incl. joint) record 18 wins from 74 runners for a +£20 profit to £1 level stakes.

The fact both tracks have good/good to firm on Saturday suggests summer form could prove reliable.

Second, when running the numbers for top jockey at Ascot this season, they read as: Ryan Moore (11 wins), Saffie Osborne (7), James Doyle (6), Oisin Murphy (5) & Billy Loughnane (5).

With the first four names all in Paris for the weekend, we think Billy Loughnane could be in for a rewarding day at Ascot.

You know what to do.

The majority were blunted some way from the winning line last weekend, so we’ve sharpened our tools ahead of picking the best edges for Saturday.

With so much packed into this week’s edition, we didn’t want to overburden you, so we’ve come up with three standouts.

1. Kevin Ryan (Trainer) 
✅ IN-FORM

ℹ️ Ahead of Friday’s racing, Kevin Ryan’s last eight runners had form figures of: 11221365.

Saturday’s runners:

2. Rowan Scott (Jockey) 
✅ IN-FORM

ℹ️ Rowan Scott’s monthly winners this year were: May (10), June (10), July (10), September (12), with October already 2 wins from 6 rides.

Saturday’s runners:

3. Redcar (Course) 
✅ LAST TIME WINNERS

ℹ️ On Redcar’s corresponding Saturday card, last time out winners who scored by over 2L produced 4 wins from 7 runners for a +£28 profit to £1 level stakes (last five years).

Saturday’s runners:

With 16 runners heading to post in Paris for Europe’s richest race on ITV this Sunday, we thought it was a good time to produce our first horse-by-horse guide – we hope you like it.

1. Daryz 🇫🇷 | Tr: F-H Graffard | J: M Barzalona | Stall: 5

✅ Won 8 of his 9 Longchamp races, including the 2025 Arc
✅ Handles good ground
✅ Good draw in stall 5
❌ Beaten almost 2L by Minnie Hauk at Ascot
❌ Last male to win back-to-back Arcs was in 1978

Chance: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

2. Saddadd 🇬🇧 | Tr: R Varian | J: R Dawson | Stall: 9

✅ Improving and won a German Group 1
✅ Handles good ground
✅ Fair draw in stall 9
❌ Faces much stronger rivals
❌ Trainer’s previous Arc runners finished 4th, 5th & 15th

Chance: ⭐⭐⭐

3. Chestnut Rocket 🇫🇷 | Tr: A Karkosa | J: M Grandin | Stall: 2

✅ Won the 2025 Polish Derby
❌ Never ran in a Group 1
❌ Out of the frame in both runs on good ground

Chance: ⭐

4. Admire Terra 🇯🇵 | Tr: Y Tomomichi | J: C Demuro | Stall: 12

✅ Likes good ground
❌ Beaten in four previous Grade 1s
❌ Toughest assignment to date
❌ Japanese horses are 0-38 in the Arc

Chance: ⭐

5. Meisho Tabaru 🇯🇵 | Tr: M Ishibashi | J: Y Take | Stall: 13

✅ Two-time Grade 1 winner in Japan
✅ Will handle good ground
❌ Not run for 112 days
❌ All wins over shorter distances
❌ Poorly drawn in stall 13
❌ Japanese horses are 0-38 in the Arc

Chance: ⭐⭐

6. Arrow Eagle 🇫🇷 | Tr: J-C Rouget | J: I Mendizabal | Stall: 14

✅ Group 1 winner (over further)
✅ Trainer won two Arcs
❌ Only sixth in last year’s Arc
❌ Outside the top two in three races on good ground
❌ Badly drawn in stall 14

Chance: ⭐⭐

7. Bay City Roller 🇬🇧 | Tr: G Scott | J: O Murphy | Stall: 15

✅ Won a Group 1 over this trip at Epsom
❌ Very bad draw out wide in stall 15
❌ Beaten 2L by Daryz last time
❌ 0-4 at Longchamp
❌ Best form in the mud, handles good

Chance: ⭐⭐⭐

8. Minnie Hauk 🇮🇪 | Tr: A O’Brien | J: W Buick | Stall: 10

✅ Beaten only a head by Daryz in 2025 Arc
✅ Handles good ground
❌ Won only one of five races in 2026
❌ Beaten over 2L by Kalpana last time
❌ Moderate draw in stall 10

Chance: ⭐⭐⭐

9. Kalpana 🇬🇧 | Tr: A Balding | J: C Keane | Stall: 6

✅ Won four Group 1s (beat the males at Ascot)
✅ Very well drawn in stall 6 (the stall with the most winners since 1980)
✅ Handles good ground
✅ Five-time distance winner
✅ 3lb weight allowance from males
❌ Endured a hard race at York 45 days ago
❌ Only seventh in 2025 Arc (drawn 10)

Chance: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

10. Friendly Soul 🇬🇧 | Tr: J & T Gosden | J: J Doyle | Stall: 7

✅ Clocked the fastest time of Longchamp’s three Arc trials 
✅ Career best on debut over this trip last time 
✅ Handles good ground
✅ Good draw in stall 7
❌ Beaten almost 3L by Diamond Necklace in July
❌ Faces males for the first time in a Group race

Chance: ⭐⭐⭐

11. Varandir 🇫🇷 | Tr: F-H Graffard | J: C Lecoeuvre | Stall: 4

✅ Similar 3yo profile to stablemate Daryz last year 
✅ Career best to win a reliable course-and-distance trial last time
✅ Handles good ground
✅ Good draw in stall 4
❌ Beaten almost 1L by Maltese Cross in July

Chance: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

12. Benvenuto Cellini 🇮🇪 | Tr: A O’Brien | J: R Moore | Stall: 1

✅ Group 1 Irish Derby winner
✅ Ryan Moore stays aboard
✅ Handles good ground
✅ Fair draw in stall 1
❌ Beaten over 4L by Varandir in Arc trial
❌ Beaten 2L by Kalpana at Ascot
❌ Well beaten in Derby on soft ground (run voided)

Chance: ⭐⭐⭐

13. Bright Light 🇩🇪 | Tr: A Suborics | J: B Marie | Stall: 8

✅ Runner-up in German Group 1
✅ Handles good ground, course and distance
❌ Beaten over 2L by Saddadd in German Group 1 last time
❌ Only won a maiden in six races
❌ Needs to find more on ratings

Chance: ⭐

14. Maltese Cross 🇬🇧 | Tr: W Haggas | J: T Marquand | Stall: 11

✅ Career-best Group 1 win at York last time
✅ Group 1 winner over course and distance
✅ Runner-up in the Derby
✅ Drying ground a big plus
❌ Moderate draw in 11, a stall without an Arc winner in 30 years 

Chance: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

15. Thundering On 🇮🇪 | Tr: J O’Brien | J: P-C Boudot | Stall: 3

✅ Group 1 Oaks winner
✅ Won over the trip and on good ground
✅ Very good draw in stall 3
✅ 10lb weight allowance
❌ Toughest test facing older males

Chance: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

16. Diamond Necklace 🇮🇪 | Tr: A O’Brien | J: C Soumillon | Stall: 16

✅ Four-time Group 1 winner
✅ Won at this meeting last year
✅ Handles good ground
✅ 10lb weight allowance
❌ Lost unbeaten record in French Group 1 last time
❌ Unproven over the trip

Chance: ⭐⭐⭐

Paddock Report Prediction:

1. KALPANA
2. DARYZ
3. VARANDIR

Featuring the latest big-race roll of honour alongside ten-year trends analysis, our ‘Super Trends’ reveal the key stats for all the big races.

Use these trends to find your selections, or if you’re short of time, check our short-list below each race.

Okay, okay, you were right to ask for smaller-field Group races last weekend as the trends found two TV winners at 7/4 and 5/6 — yeah, yeah, little fish are sweet, and all that.

We’ll try and mix things up when we can – big-field handicaps and Group/Grade races, starting this week.

Who fits all the trends?

🏅 So Regal
🏅 Breckenbrough
🏅 Albaydaa

Who fits all the trends?

🏅 Shagraan

Who fits all the trends?

🏅 Tenability
🏅 Al Aasy

Who fits all the trends?

🏅 Division

Who fits all the trends?

🏅 Moonfall
🏅 River King
🏅 Realign

We hear The Purist is relieved to see the back of September and was buzzing when he rang the office on Friday – either with excitement over his Saturday fancies, or too much sugar on the doughnuts.

Here’s who The Purist is backing on Saturday . . .

1.50 Ascot Tuco Salamanca

The race Tuco Salamanca won on Shergar Cup day at Ascot has a strong history, with two winners since 2021 going on to land Listed events, and this improving 4yo can do likewise. He since ran a scorcher when second in the Ayr Gold Cup, just running out of fuel at the death, but this return to 5f – a trip he is 1-1 over – on decent ground should do the trick. Billy Loughnane is 2-3 on him and takes back the reins.  

3.00 Ascot Division

After clocking a hat-trick this time last year, Division was thrown into the deep end in 2026, running very creditably in five Group races when mixing it with the likes of Venetian Sun. He almost broke his seasonal duck when a short-neck second in France 55 days ago, and has been rested since ahead of this assignment in which he returns to calmer Group 3 waters. The fact he receives weight from the majority of these as a 3yo is another plus.

3.35 Ascot Moonfall 

A winner of the Britannia over a mile at Royal Ascot, Moonfall continued his progression despite not following that victory up in three outings. The second of those saw him draw clear a furlong out over the same mile trip at Ascot before being reeled in late, prior to an unlucky second at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting when Billy Loughnane was short of room before a strong finish. I get the impression Loughnane was pissed off with that and has a chance to make amends stepping back to 7f – a trip I think could see Moonfall improve even more.

4.35 Redcar Wild Dahlia

Although winless in three outings this term, Wild Dahlia was a touch unfortunate not to win at least one of them. The first came on her return over this course and distance in July when finishing strongly after looking rusty early on. A testing nine-furlong trip didn’t suit next time, but she showed she was still in form when again finishing powerfully into fourth over a mile at Epsom – the fifth Island Bear was also given a similar ride and made amends by winning next time. The far side (low stalls) were favoured at Redcar recently, so stall 1 near several pacey types should tow her along – Jason Hart will need to be wary of not getting trapped on the far rail, though.

Just one this week.

Sky Captain (5yo)

We mentioned how a middle to high draw might prove an advantage in last Sunday’s gruelling 30-runner Irish Cesarewitch on heavy ground, and so it proved with the top ten home coming from stalls: 21, 23, 29, 14, 3, 2, 24, 13, 32, 27.

Although Shoda did well to finish fifth from stall 3, the 9/2 favourite Sky Captain went into our database having finished just a head behind in sixth from stall 2. 

Trainer Joseph O’Brien has shown how capable he is of landing big handicaps on both sides of the Irish Sea, and it will be interesting to see if he lets this versatile 5yo take his chance in the English equivalent next weekend. 

He handles good ground and is currently 20/1, although we’re waiting until next week to find out if he’s a runner before getting involved.

As we’re in between seasons with the Flat and jumps, it makes sense to check out dual-purpose trainer James Owen’s interview with At The Races this week. 

📌 If you think Longchamp is all about the Arc, here are some of the other star names appearing on Saturday: Pierre Bonnard, Scandinavia and Quddwah, while on Sunday: Folsom Blues, Naana’s Shadow, and Aventure take to the famous track.

We’re off to enjoy some crêpes.  

► ITV: Ascot: 1.15, 1.50, 2.25, 3.00, 3.35; Newmarket: 1.00, 1.35, 2.10; Redcar: 3.20, 3.55.

Next week it’s Newmarket’s Future Champions Festival, while jumps action gets going at Chepstow’s Welsh Racing Festival.

Until then…

…keep ‘em peeled 👀

The Paddock Report Team.