🏇 Newbury and Ripon: The Full Report

How’s it going?

If you’ve just returned from a summer holiday, we hope you enjoyed it 😎

If you’re just jetting off on a summer holiday, we hope you enjoy it 🧳

If you’re staying put, we have Saturday’s best bits all ready - the hot weather is free ☀️

But, before the best bits, a shoutout for Monday’s winner of the 1.08 at Romford – arguably the best-named greyhound ever…

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👉 Newbury is Saturday’s main meeting – five races are on ITV. The Group 2 Hungerford Stakes headlines at 3.10.

👉 Ripon stages its biggest day of the year – the Great St Wilfrid is their big race (3.25).

👉 Newmarket hosts their unique Grey Horse Handicap (2.10).

👉 Perth stages a decent jumps meeting on Saturday afternoon – in Scotland, not Australia.

👉 The unbeaten 2,000 Guineas winner Bow Echo was retired in midweek after a setback.

👉 The Irish 1,000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes winner Precise runs in a French Group 1 on Sunday.

👉 The four-day York Ebor Festival starts on Wednesday – we have some top pointers later on.

Here goes …

🔢 On Great St Wilfrid Day at Ripon during the last five years, trainer Richard Hannon had 3 wins from 6 runs for a profit of +£7 to a £1 stake.

🔢 Trainer Tim Easterby's best finishers in Ripon’s 3.55 during the last 10 years were: 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 6th, 1st.     

🔢 Last time out winners in races worth less than £8k on Newmarket’s Saturday card followed up with 7 wins from 17 runs (+£12) since 2021.

🔢 Perth’s clear second favourites on Saturday’s card came out best during the last five years with 10 wins from 30 runs (+£9), compared to the favs at 6-35 (-£23). 

🔢 In-form trainer Charles Hills is currently operating at his highest strike-rate of the season on 31% for August via 5 wins from 16 runs (four more placed) – compared to 12% in July, 14% in June, 13% in May & 7% in April.

🔢 In-form jockey Hector Crouch‘s finishing positions during the last seven days were (latest first): 9 1 1 1 4 2 3 7 3 1 1 1 6 9 1 3 1 3; he even popped over to ride a big-race winner in France on Thursday.

With this Saturday’s Hungerford card at Newbury paying decent Tote Placepot dividends of £250+ during the last four years, we’re having a crack – just as a one-off; unless we win, then we’ll see ourselves as pros and do another next week! 😁

If you’re new to the Placepot, we’ve included an Ikea-style set of instructions as we run through Saturday’s perm, without the Allen key.

The Placepot requires you to select a horse/horses to finish in the places for the first six races of a meeting – the places are dependent on how many runners in a race. For instance, in a seven-runner race, it’s the first two places (winner or runner-up); in an eight to 15-runner race, it’s the first three places.

The stakes are then put into one pool, and the dividend is paid out depending on how many punters get it right, hence the number of winning tickets – similar to the lottery. If the favourite is placed in all six races, the dividend will of course be small, as most punters will have it.

The more selections you choose, the more expensive the bet becomes, so it helps to keep some races down to just one selection – i.e. playing a banker, or a horse/favourite you don’t see being out of the frame.

Eyes down …

Race 1: 1.25 – Favourites have an excellent record in the opener so we’re putting our brave pants on by playing our ‘banker’ – in this case, the favourite, which you can actually mark on the Tote betting slip as ‘unnamed favourite’. 

Race 2: 1.55 – Trainer William Haggas does well at this meeting, and Kinswoman is dropping into calmer waters, while River Spey was one of our horses to follow from Glorious Goodwood.

Race 3: 2.35 – Favourites don’t have a great record in this, so it could be a race to attack. Addison Grey has been doing his best work over 6f and looks worth trying over this trip, while Stellar Sunrise won well over course and distance in April and has cheekpieces to spark a revival.

Race 4: 3.10 – With the last five winners of the Hungerford Stakes all patiently ridden from behind (rear), along with a host of 10/1+ shots making the frame, we’ll chance a couple of really big prices in Northern Champion, who won three of his last six races, while Sukanya won over course and distance in April and could enjoy the return.

Race 5: 3.42 – Experience could count in this big field of juveniles, and Mister Whippy can put his debut fourth at Doncaster last month to use. He came home well that day to finish 3L behind Narrjoo, who won in midweek.

Race 6: 4.20 – A tricky six-runner to finish, and a top-two place is needed for Placepot purposes. Tryfan has a consistent record when rested for 30 to 60 days and likes fast ground, as does Great Bedwyn, who has a decent apprentice taking 5lb off.  

Bet (perm): 1 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 1 x 2 = 16 selections.

If you did this bet to a £1 unit stake, it would cost £16 (16 selections x £1), which means if you won and the dividend paid £80, you would collect £80 - the Tote dividend is always displayed to a £1 stake. 

But, if you wanted to lay out less money, you could do the perm to say, 20p, which would cost £3.20 (16 x 20p), although you would only collect a fifth of the £80 if successful, hence £16 - get it?

There is an opportunity, however, to increase the payout if your selections in races where you have two or more runners both get placed, as the perm then doubles up in your favour and so forth. So if you had two runners placed in one race and another two placed in a separate race, it would be 2 x 2 = 4, which means the 20p becomes 80p and you would collect four-fifths (80%) of the £80, hence £64.

The Placepot can be a fun bet using small stakes, and the dividends can be big, especially if you’re adventurous enough to leave one or two favourites out.

At last year’s York Ebor Festival, day one’s Placepot dividend paid £474 to a £1 unit, with the final day on Saturday paying £696.

Featuring the latest big-race roll of honour alongside ten-year trends analysis, our ‘Super Trends’ reveal the key stats for all the big races.

Use these trends to find your own selections, or if you’re short of time and can’t access a formbook, check our short-list of selections below each race.

🏅 Stellar Sunrise
🏅 Humam

🏅 Prince Of India
🏅 Symbol Of Honour

🏅 Musical Touch
🏅 Kodiac Thriller
🏅 Manila Scouse

It was a Saturday of what might have been for The Purist’s three bets last week as they went close without paying for his Saturday night kebab.

He’s not a man who likes to go hungry, and the fact we only got hold of him on Friday afternoon as his phone was switched off where he’d been in solitude studying Saturday’s form suggests he wants to get back amongst the chilli sauce.

Here’s who The Purist is backing on Saturday…

Newbury 1.55 Kinswoman

This improving filly almost won on her reappearance in May when beaten only a neck by Naana’s Sparkle at Yarmouth, who has since improved himself and is now rated 95. Kinswoman was favourite to win Epsom’s ‘Dash’ next time out on Derby day, but she couldn't get going in time before finishing well. She’s been highly tried in Group 3/Listed grade since, but now returns to a handicap off the same mark of 88 as she was when narrowly beaten by Naana’s Sparkle. She’s won on fast ground and has been supported during the week.   

Newbury 2.35 Addison Grey

Addison Grey has run well on all five outings over 6f this year without having much luck, and now moves up to 7f. Horses can pull hard when moving up from sprinting as the pace can be slower, but there are a couple of front-runners in this so hopefully this grey horse can be switched off early for a late run, and has Hector Crouch to do the steering.

Ripon 2.55 Educating Rita

I’m not going to worry too much about the draw in this big field, as recent evidence shows the winner tends to come from where there is the most pace to aim at, and Educating Rita (stall 2) has the speedy Kats Bob alongside (stall 5). Educating Rita last won around two years ago from a mark of 72, but found life difficult thereafter from higher marks; she has changed yards this season and ran really well when third at York last month from a reduced mark of 70. She seems to enjoy an undulating track like Ripon and has been backed during the week, yet is still available at around 10/1.

Trainer Ed Walker has Never Enough ready for Friday’s Gimcrack Stakes …

“He was very impressive at Ascot on his second start. A very pleasing debut finishing second at Windsor, but he really stepped forward, and I think there’s plenty more to come from him. He’s a very exciting horse.”

We like to give the runners we nominate here a theme each week, and this latest trio give a good example of runners that look well handicapped (on a nice weight) in comparison to those they finished around in a race where they caught the eye.

Bintknight (3yo)

Recorded a career best when beating the 86-rated Londoner in a 1m2f handicap at Lingfield two weeks ago, taking his crisp record to 2 wins from 4 runs (plus a second). Bintknight was raised just 2lb to a mark of 79 and can win more handicaps.

Castle Rock (3yo)

Another improver with a record of 2-4, and his runner-up effort behind the 100-rated Arctic Dawn at Newmarket six days ago stands out, having only been raised 2lb to a new mark of 91. He was also switched on several occasions when blocked before getting in the clear, but it wasn’t picked up by the racing media comments: 

‘midfield, shaken up 2f out, headway final furlong, took second near finish’

‘in touch with leaders, outpaced 2f out, ridden and ran on well inside final furlong’.

Crafty Blue (3yo)

We tend not to follow horses that finish ‘too well’ and go up in the handicap, as in Crafty Blue’s case when upped 3lb for her runner-up effort behind Norcross Brow in a 7f handicap at Haydock six days ago. The winner is now on a mark of 77, while over 2l back in third was the 72-rated Galba. Considering Crafty Blue had to wait ages for a clear run before making her late effort, she still looks fairly treated on 72.

If you’ve never heard of it, the York Ebor Festival is known as the ‘Royal Ascot of the north’.

It all starts on Wednesday in front of ITV’s cameras – Ladies’ Day is on Thursday …

We’ll look at the Ebor itself next Saturday, but in the meantime have a chew on these beauties …

At the last five York Ebor Festivals …

Thursday and Saturday (day two & day four) saw the most winning favourites via a collective return of 22 wins from 61 bets (+£20 profit to a £1 stake). 

Across the four days at York, runners at 2/1 to 7/2 produced 37 wins from 126 bets (+£18)

Jockey Ryan Moore rode 16 winners from 81 rides (+£4) – Daniel Tudhope had 10-67 (+£6) 

In Wednesday’s opening 5½f handicap (1.50), around 20 runners usually head to post, but nine of the last 11 winners came from stalls 2 to 10. Only one of those winners arrived via Ascot or Goodwood last time (1 win from 84 runs).

In Thursday’s mile handicap (3.00), stick with 3-6yos from stalls 1 to 9 displaying a top-three effort in either of their last two runs.

In Friday’s mile handicap for 3yos (1.50), 11 of the 13 winners came from stalls 1 to 8, while all 13 winners last ran 16-60 days ago. Give extra attention to those with just one previous run at York (7-43 A/E 2.02) compared to the others at 6-157.

Final note …

Check the ground as rain is forecast in Yorkshire next week 🌧️

Be wary of horses carrying a 6lb penalty – only one struck from 23 attempts ❌

Be wary of apprentice jockeys – only three struck from 107 attempts ❌

📌 Apprentice jockey Donagh Murphy has now ridden 18 winners and is still able to claim 7lb off the saddle. He isn’t afraid of using the stick and is strong in a finish so look out for any of his rides.

► ITV: Newbury: 1.25, 1.55, 2.35, 3.10, 3.42; Newmarket: 2.10; Ripon: 2.55, 3.25.

Next Saturday is the big race at York, the Ebor Handicap - Europe’s most valuable Flat handicap worth £300k to the winner.

Until then…

..keep ‘em peeled 👀

The Paddock Report Team.

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