🏇 Goodwood Celebration Mile: The Full Report

How’s it going?

Happy August Bank Holiday!

Sunday’s trip to Iceland (the shop, not the country, unfortunately) for some barbecue grub is on hold until Saturday’s results – hopefully, the same as last week (Daiquiri Bay 10/1, Orchard 9/2, Infraad 10/3, Notable Speech 9/4).

Steak or sausages?

👉 Rain is forecast over the next 24 hours – check the ground before betting. Beverley is already soft.

👉 Saturday’s big race is the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood (3.10).

👉 Sandown stage two Group 3 races – the Atalanta Stakes (2.50) and Solario Stakes (3.30).

👉 A total of nine races are live on ITV4 from Goodwood and Sandown.

👉 The Irish Cambridgeshire takes place at the Curragh (4.15).

👉 In the British Flat trainers’ championship, Andrew Balding (£7.1m) is closing on Aidan O’Brien (£7.7m).

👉 The two-time Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs was retired in midweek.

👉 If you’re up late on Saturday, the Grade 1 Travers Stakes (11.35) takes place at Saratoga where Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo goes for a hat-trick.

Here goes…

🔢 Runners beaten over 4L to 10L were favoured in the last ten runnings of Goodwood’s Celebration Mile, with 6 wins from 17 runs (+£29 A/E 2.49).   

🔢 Runners dropping down from a Group 1 or Group 2 were favoured in the last ten runnings of Sandown’s Atalanta Stakes with 6 wins from 24 runs (+£24 A/E 1.55). 

🔢 The top five in the betting dominated Beverley’s two-day meeting on Saturday and Sunday with 68 wins from 329 runs (+£3) – those sixth or lower in betting were 2-255 (-221).

🔢 Joint-trainers Michael & David Easterby had 7 wins from 20 runs (+£32) at Beverley’s two-day meeting.

🔢 In Sunday’s Beverley Bullet (2.15), male runners did best (females 0-26). Respect also those foaled in February, drawn in the lowest half of stalls, and from a race worth £100k last time.

🔢 Runners from a Curragh maiden last time did well when returned to the Curragh on Saturday with 8 wins from 32 runs (+£50).

🔢 Three in-form trainers worth noting on Saturday are Ger Lyons, Brian Meehan, and Tom Ward.

A change this week, as we produce cheat sheets for each of the two biggest meetings on Saturday, instead of two covering the same track.

Featuring the latest big-race roll of honour alongside ten-year trends analysis, our ‘Super Trends’ reveal the key stats for all the big races.

Use these trends to find your own selections, or if you’re short of time and can’t access a formbook, check our short-list of selections below each race.

🏅 Completely Random
🏅 Ghost Mode
🏅 Aalto

🏅 Alcarath
🏅 Gonna Fly
🏅 Stem

🏅 Pierre Royal
🏅 Playin Cool
🏅 Loughrea

With a couple of 9/2 winners in recent Saturdays, The Purist has kept his decent summer run going.

And that’s just on Saturdays when he shares hot info with us – he bangs them in during the week as well 🥅 

Here’s who The Purist is backing on Saturday:

First, I always knew Luke Morris was a good jockey 😉

Second, it was frustrating to see Sondad win at York – that was meant to happen on the soft stuff at Ayr next month.

Sandown 2.50 Moon Target

With Luke Morris now my favourite jockey of all-time, I’m giving him another chance to move up the Christmas card list in Sandown’s Atalanta Stakes. Moon Target has been trading blows with Group 1 and Group 2 company the last five times and should appreciate this drop to a Group 3, while Sir Mark Prescott is currently shitting winners. And, should the rain arrive, this filly has won on good to soft. Over to you Morris, again. 

Sandown 4.05 Defence Minister

In midweek I was eyeing up a punt on Desert Shadow, who pissed up last time and looks ahead of his mark going for the hat-trick. But the ground could be an issue if rain hits, as all his form is on the quick stuff. If rain does arrive, then Defence Minister is more proven, and flashed home into 7th of 20 at Goodwood last time when blocked up the inside rail. He seems not to enjoy straight tracks these days (15th, 17th, 20th at Ascot), and should go well if getting cover for a late run up Sandown’s hill.

Beverley 4.10 Obelix

Obelix is the King of the Eyecatchers, with not much falling right since he won at Wetherby in June – five outings ago. In four runs since, he’s had the door closed twice, been ridden incorrectly from the front, and ridden too far back. He should’ve won last time but jockey Jason Hart messed up in not taking the gap and it’s no surprise he’s been kicked off. The key is the ground; he hasn’t faced soft much, but did run okay on his debut when faced with it. If he handles the mud, I’m expecting a big run; if he doesn’t cope with it, he won’t, simple as that. 

You should know by now that we love it when the racing writers miss key details in their form comments, and our latest is a good example.

Magic Boy (4yo)

An improving sprinter who recorded a career best at York last month before racing too freely on a return visit two weeks later, before his excellent third in Ripon’s Silver Cup two Saturdays ago when waiting for room from the 2f marker to the 1f marker, before a late rattle when in the clear…

Experts’ form comments…

‘Raced near side, in touch with leaders, switched right inside final furlong, kept on final 110yds, went third towards finish’

‘Midfield near side, headway inside final furlong, ran on well inside final 110yds, took third towards finish’

We like this horse, and if given the right ride – a patient one for a late run – then he can win a nice sprint from just 2lb higher this autumn (he’d better win now, as it took ages to put those screenshots together).

We’ve tracked down the latest online trainer interviews to save you searching:

Michael Dods - At The Races (August 25)

Richard Fahey - Sporting Life (August 27)

Aidan O’Brien - Racing TV (August 27)

📌 Windsor’s big race on Saturday is the Listed August Stakes (6.30) in which 8 of the last 20 winners came from Goodwood’s Glorious Stakes (8-29 +£25 A/E 1.48). The only runner taking that route this year is Ghostwriter, who attracted midweek money.

► ITV4: Goodwood: 1.25, 2.00, 2.35, 3.10, 3.45; Sandown: 1.40, 2.15, 2.50, 3.30

Next Saturday is Haydock’s Group 1 Sprint Cup.

Until then…

…keep ‘em peeled 👀

The Paddock Report Team.

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