🏇 The Epsom Derby: The Full Report

How’s it going?

If top-class racing is your thing, stay tuned. 

Saturday’s Epsom Derby meeting gets underway at 1.30pm.

The first six races are live on ITV. Strap yourselves in.

Here’s how we see it…

👉 Friday’s ground at Epsom was good to soft. There is more rain forecast for Saturday. 

👉 Precise was pulled from Friday’s Oaks after midweek rain. Royal Ascot appears next.

👉 Epsom’s ‘Dash’ (3.15) is the fastest race in the world – a bare 5f and mostly downhill. 

👉 Oisin Murphy leads the Flat jockeys’ championship with 30 winners.

👉 Karl Burke leads the Flat trainer’s championship with £1.1m in prize-money.

👉 The Belmont Stakes completes America’s final leg of the Triple Crown on Saturday. The first, second, and fourth from May’s Kentucky Derby are set for a rematch.

You won’t find these anywhere else. Honest.

Beware short-odds runners at Epsom.

On Derby Day for the last five years

Musselburgh’s feature race of the day is the Listed Fillies’ Stakes (3.28).

There were nine previous runnings of the event, and eight went to stalls 2 to 5 (8 wins from 34 runs +£20) – the other stalls were 1 win from 48 runs.

At Lingfield, trainer George Scott has a tidy record on the summer turf course with 6 of his last 14 runners winning.

On Saturday, he runs Pixie Diva (8.10). 

Similarly, at Chepstow, Archie Watson is the trainer to follow. 

On Saturday, he runs My Maria (5.47). 

Winning distances – The bookies will again have odds on how far a winner scores by, whether it’s a small or big margin:

Based on recent history, the following races could be worth looking at:

Small winning margin:

3.15 Epsom: ½L, ½L, short-head, head, 1½L, neck 

5.55 Epsom: ¾L, short-head, neck, short-head, neck

Big winning margin:     

4.00 Epsom: 3¾L, 2¾L, ½L, 2½L, 4½L
5.20 Epsom: 2¾L, 3L, 2L, nose, 2¼L, 1½L, 6L, 2L

The legendary Shargar won the 1981 Derby by a record 10 lengths. Beast.

Keep an open mind regarding the betting for this historic Classic, as two favourites won the Derby since 2022, while four big-priced winners popped up at 40/1, 25/1, 16/1 & 16/1 since 2016.

🥇 Item won one of the most reliable long-term trials at York. Winners of that race have produced 6 wins from 25 runners in the Derby since 1997. Trainer Andrew Balding’s two previous winners of that York trial were unplaced in the Derby, but Item is rated much higher, and is also the highest-rated runner in the line-up. 

🥈 Pierre Bonnard only just lost out to James J Braddock in an Irish trial over 1m2f, but fits several trends and was bred for this longer trip. More rain would suit.

🥉 Maltese Cross just scraped home in his three victories, including when landing his trial at Lingfield last time. Winners of that race have a mixed record in the Derby, but he should have the stamina.

⬥ Benvenuto Cellini is one of the few proven over this distance when landing the Chester Vase. Winners of that race in the Derby are 2-23 here since 1997. Has a bit to do from quite a wide draw in stall 12 (of 14), but Ryan Moore achieved a similar feat from a wide berth last weekend in the French Derby. More rain may not suit, though.

⬥ James J Braddock narrowly beat Pierre Bonnard in Ireland last time but has a wide draw in 13 (of 14). His jockey has limited experience at Epsom (0-3).

⬥ Bay Of Brilliance was only just touched off by Maltese Cross at Lingfield. His jockey, Hector Crouch, arrives in good form.

⬥ Ancient Egypt has average form despite 3 wins from 4 races, and has a bit to do on official ratings from 100. Doesn't fit the 'won at short odds last time out' trend.

⬥ Action lost his last four races including when soundly beaten by Item at York. Now fitted with cheekpieces.

Featuring the latest big-race roll of honour alongside ten-year trends analysis, our ‘Super Trends’ reveal the key stats for all the big races.

A very open handicap in which the last favourite to oblige was back in 2013. The distance is a very key area. You need to be a distance winner (5f), but also a winner over further. Two 7-year-olds and an 8-year-old won this during the last ten years, so don’t write off the veterans.

⬥ Kinswoman is very consistent and comes from a top yard but has never won beyond 5f which is against the trends.

⬥ Lexington Blitz is drawn in the middle from stall 10 (of 20), so has options where to go but is another yet to win beyond 5f.

⬥ Dream Composer won this two years ago, is a winner over 5f/6f, and has dropped to a nice weight.

⬥ Stormy Impact won the junior version of this 12 months ago for 3-year-olds but didn’t show much on his return for a new trainer last month.

⬥ Brazen Bolt has won over 5f/6f, including over this course and distance four years ago. Stall 19 could either be a big help or disadvantage. 

⬥ Cindy Lou Who fits the distance trend but may save her best for Bath – no female won this in the last 10 years either (0-10).

Another open handicap in which the favourite seemed cursed as the last to deliver was back in 2008. None of this year’s runners have the perfect trends profile, so something has to give.

⬥ Starlight Time won at Epsom on debut last summer. Not seen since November’s all-weather win and makes his handicap debut. 

⬥ Hell Yeah He Did will love any more rain, but has fitness to prove on his reappearance on handicap debut.

⬥ Allegresse finished last of four on his return and makes his handicap debut.

⬥ Pendella tackles softish ground for the first time, but arrives in form with a nice profile. No female has won this going back around 30 years (0-18).

⬥ Folk Pageant recorded a double in May and ticks all the boxes, while also proven on softish ground. The female stat is the only negative.

Here is a trainer whose runners are currently outperforming their odds…

Julie Camacho – May 30 to June 4

2 wins from 5 runs (+£15 to a £1 stake)
Winners’ odds included: 10/1, 17/2
Placed odds included: 5/2

It’s all speed for The Purist on Saturday, who is backing…

2.30 Doncaster - Toca Madera

Ran a belter at York from a poor draw last time for the David O’Meara yard now hitting some form. This drop from a class 2 race to a class 3 race should also help.

3.15 Epsom – Dream Composer

A drop in the weights saw this 8yo win his reappearance before a cracking fourth at Goodwood. Also won this very race in 2024 and is weighted to go close again.

Two more speedy sorts to look out for on Saturday who may potentially get a freebie on their own up front.

4.25 Doncaster – Desert Falcon
5.35 Lingfield - Bobacious

Benvenuto Cellini’s chances in the Derby could be dictated by the weather.

Any heavy rain on Saturday could be a bad sign, according to what Aidan O’Brien told the Racing Post after the colt flopped in October when only third of five tackling heavy ground: “He got stuck in the ground.” 

Horses carrying the biggest weight at some tracks can be advantaged. A track like Epsom, for instance, has downhill areas in which it’s easier to freewheel – imagine carrying your shopping downhill.

Lingfield is a similar undulating track that can help top-weights, including these two, on Saturday evening:

5.35 Lingfield A Major Payne
8.40 Lingfield Court Of Session

The smoke was spotted for miles as the following three red-hot horses made their way from our private Paddock Report database to this report on Friday morning 🔥

Luzon Heights (3yo)

We like this horse. Two outings ago, he was runner-up at Ascot, where both the fourth and fifth won afterwards, including Blue Courvoisier, who won last weekend’s Silver Bowl. Luzon Heights was then given too much to do from behind at Sandown when finishing well into fourth. He can win a nice handicap this summer.

Richie’s Rocket (3yo)

The 7f handicap won by Catullus at Goodwood a few weeks ago could turn out to be a very strong race. Often in races like this, it is the runners flashing down the outside that catch the eye. But, Richie’s Rocket decided to go up the inner rail and came home just as well without his jockey getting too serious. He's also dropped a generous 2lb for that. Look out for him.

Zarvali (3yo)

Following four average outings as a juvenile sprinter last year, Zarvali was sold to Roger Fell’s yard and made a winning start upped to 7f at Catterick in May. He then shaped as though there was more to come when 6th of 20 over the same trip at York a few weeks ago, thundering home having not received a clear run in the home straight. 

📌 There are 11 days until Royal Ascot - suit sorted? 🎩

► ITV (free): Epsom: 1.30, 2.05, 2.40, 3.15, 4.00, 4.40.

Next weekend is a biggie at York racecourse. Chester and Sandown also have some strong races.

Until then…

..keep ‘em peeled 👀

The Paddock Report Team.

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