🏇 The Scottish Grand National: The Full Report

How’s it going?

Yes, there really is another Grand National this Saturday.

This time, it’s the Scottish version, and hopefully, third time lucky for some of us! 😳

Next weekend is the final main jumps fixtures in Britain.

There is good news, though.

First, the Punchestown Festival. One last hurrah for jumps fans from April 28 to May 2. The Irish and Brits do battle once more – this time in Ireland’s backyard.

The summer jumps season then starts. A low-key version for horses that dislike mud and prefer sunshine on firmer ground. You can see their point. 😎

👉 The Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr at 3.35pm - live on ITV.

👉 On the Flat, Newbury stage two important Classic trials.

👉 In the second of Newbury’s Classic trials (2.00), Albert Einstein – winter favourite for the 2,000 Guineas – bids to hit back after defeat three weeks ago.

👉 The big betting race at Newbury is the Spring Cup – 26 runners go to post.

👉 Evening racing on the Flat starts at Nottingham (4.05).

There are five Classics in total each Flat season.

The first two take place in two weekends’ time.

The Classics are simply the most prestigious races for three-year-olds (Derby etc).

The first two Classics are about speed. The 2,000 Guineas is over a mile (1m for males) on 2 May, followed by the 1,000 Guineas (1m for females) 24 hours later – both at Newmarket.

The three-year-olds then step up in trip for the Oaks over a mile and a half (1m4f for females) on 5 June, followed by the Derby (1m4f for males and females) on 6 June - both at Epsom.

The final Classic tests their stamina via the St Leger over a mile and three-quarters at Doncaster in September (1m6f for males and females).

Lesson over. You now know what the Classics are – and not a mention of Barcelona or Real Madrid. 🤦

👉 In Scotland, we’re siding with Ayr favourites over second favourites.

During the last five years at Ayr’s Scottish Grand National meeting:

£1 bet on each favourite (incl. joint) returned a +£12 profit (28 wins from 82)
£1 bet on each clear second favourite returned a -£37 loss (5 wins from 59)

👉 Also at Ayr, we’ll be respecting any runners from the Cheltenham Festival last time, as they showed a 13-77 (+£12) return at this meeting.

👉 At Newbury, we’re switching camps, as Newbury second favourites offered more value than the favourites.

During the last five years at Newbury’s Guineas trials meeting:

£1 bet on each favourite (incl. joint) returned a -£24 loss (22 wins from 85)
£1 bet on each second favourite (incl. joint) returned a +£26 profit (19 wins from 69)

👉 At Thirsk, trainer Karl Burke won the opening race for the last two years (1.37). Burke’s two-year-olds are firing this term, and he relies on Bai Tong in this.

The distance of Saturday’s Scottish Grand National is four miles (4m) – that’s two furlongs shorter than last weekend’s Grand National, and nowhere near what Scottish-duo The Proclaimers once famously sang they’d be willing to walk…

…although trainer Paul Nicholls’ runners do have to travel around 400 miles north from Somerset 🚛

Wonder if they play it in the van.

When it comes to finding clues for picking the winner of the Scottish Grand National, then based on past winners of the race, these are all good signs…

✅ Form – Won during the last six runs
✅ Days – Ran during the last 11 to 60 days
✅ Official rating – Rated 135 to 146
✅ Outings – Ran 5 to 6 times that season

❌ Avoid: Blinkers or visor
► Our Scottish Grand National short-list: King Of Answers | Herakles Westwood | Isaac Des Obeaux

Having dealt with the Scottish Grand National, let’s examine Saturday’s other big races.

Below are the Pros and Cons from previous winners’ profiles of these races.

These can include a horse’s age, odds, or winning form.

Either use the clues to find the winner yourself, or head straight to the paddock short-list…

Bonus Points For: Ran at Ayr or Cheltenham last time.
Paddock Shortlist: Classic Maestro | Traprain Law | Le Nez Creux

Bonus Points For: Ran in the Scottish Champion Hurdle before.
Paddock Shortlist: Captain Hugo | Tutti Quanti

Bonus Points For: Four-year-olds | Never ran in the Spring Cup before.
Paddock Shortlist: Fifth Column | Tony Montana | Ancient Rome

We’re going for it.

After sifting through Saturday’s diamonds in the rough to ‘make the frame’ 💎, our algorithm has thrown up the following candidates for a place acca (the main positive is in brackets).

Remember to look for a bookie with extended place odds 🔍

1.17 Bangor Alsakib (class)
1.45 Ayr Diamond Dealer (chases)
2.20 Ayr Tutti Quanti (ground)
3.02 Bangor They Want Me (left-handed)
3.40 Bangor Eremenko (ground)
4.20 Newbury Water To Wine (trainer)
4.42 Bangor Dwight K Schrute (cheekpieces)
4.55 Newbury Valedictory (trainer)

And, if this acca comes up, we’re off to somewhere hot.

Does next to the oven in Greggs count?

Not all favourites win.

Here’s one that may be worth taking on this weekend…

2.20 Ayr – Tellherthename

Tellherthename’s form-figures around a right-handed track are: 2113

His form-figures around a left-handed track are: P04P50

Ayr is a left-handed track.

We’re putting forward John & Thady Gosden this week.

Father and son sent out 4 winners from 7 runners at Newmarket in midweek which takes some doing.

Gosden’s Saturday runners:

2.35 Newbury Lion's Pride
3.10 Newbury Fifth Column
3.45 Newbury Blue Aria & Lighting Thunder
4.20 Newbury Water To Wine
4.55 Newbury Valedictory

For those of you who like to study the racecard, this sheet highlights the positive angles we’ve dug up for Saturday’s races – all in time order.

1.25 Newbury

🎲 Betting: Top four in the market
🥇 Form: Won during last two runs
🏁 Winning distances: 3¼L, neck, neck, ½L, short-head, short-head

1.45 Ayr

🐴 Age: Seven and eight-year-olds
🎲 Betting: 10/1, 7/1, 13/2, 2/1F, 11/1, 5/1, 22/1, 10/1
⚖️ Weight: 11st or more
🕵️ Trainer: Dan Skelton

2.00 Newbury

🗓️ Days: Yet to race that year
🏇 In-play: Front-prominent runners

2.20 Ayr

🐴 Age: Five to seven-year-olds

2.35 Newbury

🗓️ Days: Yet to race that year
🎲 Betting: Top four in the market
🐴 Age: Four and five-year-olds

2.47 Thirsk

🔟 Rating: Officially rated 67 to 75
🐴 Age: Four to six-year-olds

2.55 Ayr

🐴 Age: Six to eight-year-olds
🥉 Form: Top-three effort last time out
🐴 Breeding: Irish-bred runners (IRE)

3.02 & 3.40 Bangor (two divisions)

🥉 Form: Top-three effort during last three runs
🎲 Betting: 7/1 or shorter

3.10 Newbury

🏁 Winning distances: neck, ½L, 3½L, neck, 1L, neck, neck, ½L

3.35 Ayr

🏇 In-play: Patiently-ridden runners

3.45 Newbury

🥇 Form: Unraced or top-four effort last time
🕵️ Trainer: William Haggas
🏇 In-play: Front-prominent runners

4.20 Newbury

🎲 Betting: Top three in the market
🕵️ Trainer: J & T Gosden

4.48 Ayr

🐴 Age: Four and five-year-olds
🎲 Betting: Top three in the market
🥇 Form: Never ran in a bumper

4.55 Newbury

🥇 Form: Already won over 1m2f
🥇 Form: Not beaten more than 10L last time
🎲 Betting: Top four in the market
🚦 Draw: Starting stall 6 or higher
🏁 Winning distances: ½L, 1L, ¾L, 1½L, ¾L

5.07 Thirsk

🏇 In-play: Front-prominent runners

5.40 Thirsk

🐴 Age: Four and five-year-olds
🥇 Form: Top 5 last three runs
🔟 Rating: Officially rated 51 or higher

Flat racing is what floats The Purist’s boat.

He reckons the percentages are more in your favour as there are no obstacles in the way. That’s one way of looking at it.

Here’s who The Purist is backing on Saturday…

2.00 Newbury: Zavateri

This talented colt was unbeaten in four races prior to finishing fourth on his final outing of 2025. However, the horses around him in second and fifth that day both won next time out, and that form now looks very strong.

2.47 Thirsk: Iris Dancer

Having gone up the weights for winning three races last summer, Iris Dancer found things more difficult in the autumn of 2025. However, she dropped in the weights during that dry run, and was second on her return 11 days ago.

3.10 Newbury: Fifth Column

Fifth Column won three big handicaps last year. His season fizzled out after landing that hat-trick, but won first time out last April, and his yard is currently flying.

5.40 Thirsk: Siviez

Siviez may have shown only moderate form in six career outings, but arguably her best two efforts came on decent turf ground. One of those was at Catterick 10 days ago, when making late headway behind a horse that has already won since.

📌 The three-day Perth Festival starts on Wednesday.

Look for trainer Olly Murphy’s runners 😉

Here is Murphy’s recent record at the Perth Festival…

2025: 8 wins from 19 runners (£1 bet on each returned +£19) 💷
2024: 6 wins from 15 runners (£1 bet on each +£6) 💷
2023: 2 wins from 2 runners (£1 bet on each +£4) 💷
2022: 1 win from 9 runners (£1 bet on each returned +£6) 💷

In the words of Lord Vader…

► ITV (free): Ayr: 1.10, 1.45, 2.20, 2.55, 3.35; Newbury: 1.25, 2.00, 2.35, 3.10.
► Sky Sports Racing (free): Saturday: Bangor, Brighton, Newbury; Sunday: Plumpton.
► Racing TV (subscription): Saturday: Ayr, Bellewstown, Nottingham, Thirsk; Sunday: Curragh, Stratford, Tramore.

Next weekend is the Bet365 Jump Finale at Sandown Park 👋

End-of-season prizes are handed out for the Champion Jockey, Champion Owner, Champion Trainer and Horse of the Year 🏆

Unfortunately, we haven’t been invited to hand the prizes out 😢

Until then…

..keep ‘em peeled 👀

The Paddock Report Team.