🏇 Royal Ascot & York: The Full Report

How’s it going?

It's getting warm, isn't it? 🌤️

If, like us, you’ve caught World Cup fever, then you’re in the right place as our formation this week sees a newsletter of two halves.

The first half sets the tempo for Saturday’s racing.

The second half sees a ‘high press’…towards Royal Ascot 👑.

No VAR. No extra-time. No penalties.

Just plenty of racing info so you can ‘Express Yourself’ 🎵

👉 Royal Ascot starts on Tuesday. Flat racing’s equivalent of the Cheltenham Festival, but posher. Much posher.

👉 Ascot’s ground was good to soft in midweek, but has already dried out to good to firm. 

👉 York and Sandown are the main Flat meetings on Saturday, where the ground quickened up by the hour during Friday’s cards.

👉 Chester’s official going was changed to soft ground during Friday’s card. 

👉 Derby flop Benvenuto Cellini could make a quick return in Friday’s King Edward VII Stakes.

👉 French 1,000 Guineas winner Diamond Necklace returns for the French Oaks on Sunday. 

👉 Haydock’s forthcoming fixtures have been moved to Nottingham and Newmarket while repairing ‘the hole’.

You won’t find these anywhere else. Honest.

At York, be mindful of short prices at the top end of the market. The recent history of the Saturday at this meeting suggests looking elsewhere.

York Saturday - last five years

Trainer Richard Hannon is building a very tidy record at York.

In handicaps and novice races, his last 20 runners at the track returned:

7 wins & 9 placed (+£20) for an overall 80% place record.

Backing these 20 runners returned +£63 profit to a £1 stake.

It’s a stat to keep in mind throughout the summer at York.

The aptly-named trainer Sam England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 continues to send out the winners after a dry April:

April: 0-30 (-£30) A/E 0
May: 6-37 (+£8) A/E 1.19
June: 4-9 (+£11) A/E 2.40

Similarly, trainer Steph Hollinshead’s record in April and May was 3 wins from 44 runs.

In June, she is already 2 wins from 9 runs, along with a runner-up at 9/1.

Summer jumps fans will be aware of champion trainer Dan Skelton’s sizzling-hot form. The finishing positions of his June runners were: 211221117211312112912515.

Featuring the latest big-race roll of honour alongside ten-year trends analysis, our ‘Super Trends’ reveal the key stats for all the big races.

🏅 Lir Speciale - Ticks all boxes at big each-way odds; possibly best on softer ground but has won on quicker ground.

🏅 Daydreama - Another with a likeable profile for this race who won’t want the ground too quick; likes this course and distance.

🏅 Son - Will handle these conditions and has a very generous 7lb taken off his back by apprentice Jake Dickson, who rode a midweek winner.

🏅 Hard Endeavour - Had a rough race on his return last month and should strip fitter for that outing; comes from stall 11 which produced the last two winners of this race.

🏅 Circus Of Rome - Arguably wants further but this drop in trip to a stiff mile is interesting; if they go fast enough early he could be a threat up the hill.

🏅 Sean - Monster odds, but older horses won this race and he tries a tongue-tie for his reappearance after 99 days; ticks all other boxes.

🏅 Advertised - Didn’t seem to enjoy Newmarket’s undulations the last twice, a track that supplied six of the last ten winners of this York sprint.

🏅 Chicago Pope - An improving Irish raider with a nice profile for this, apart from missing the draw trend by just one stall.

🏅 Red Spells Danger - Another improver who won going away last time; also misses the draw trend by two stalls in stall 9, but stall 10 did win it last year.

There’s a lot going on in The Purist’s life at the moment - he appears rocked at the World Cup causing havoc with evening episodes of Corrie.

We asked him to explain how he approaches Royal Ascot next week, and what to look out for, but first…

…here’s who The Purist is backing on Saturday…

1.35 Chester - Baldomero 

Trainer Michael Appleby had his first winner for a while last week and could enjoy a good June now turning the corner. His Baldomero shaped as if coming back to good form when third at Doncaster last week, and has a good record when turned out quickly. His draw in stall 7 is decent, and Harry Davies is booked to do the steering, and has won on him twice.

2.05 Sandown - Distant Shore

A lightly-raced individual with just three races on the clock, but got off the mark on debut over 6f last summer before two good efforts at 7f last month. The last of those was a big sign that he now needs another step up in trip to a mile, and that’s what he’ll get at Sandown.  

3.17 Sandown - Beagle Bay 

Beagle Bay is already 2 wins from 4 runs in his short career to date, including a last time out win at Yarmouth. He pulled clear that day and looked better the further he went, so this step up to a mile should be ideal - the same trip his dam (mum) won over.

Whether you’re playing Monopoly or approaching a major racing festival, it pays to have a strategy - at Ascot, a hotel on Mayfair would be the way to go.

The weather also plays a big role, and conditions look set fair in the south next week with little rain - no, we won’t be doing the horoscopes or a cooking section next week.

Therefore, good, good to firm ground is expected for race one on Tuesday afternoon, meaning punters can study ahead this weekend with confidence - World Cup in the background, you know the score.

In fact, just for the sake of a snazzy graphic, here is the official going report map from Turftrax - green means good, literally…

With the weather out of the way, it’s now over to The Purist for his nuggets of knowledge when it comes to the big royal jamboree…

1️⃣ Trainers. We all know Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore will have winners at Royal Ascot next week but it will be hard work profiting from them.

O’Brien and Moore at Royal Ascot in the last five years:

21 wins from 106 runs for a loss of -£25 to a £1 stake ⚠️

Therefore, it could help to look at other trainers for some better odds, such as Harry Eustace, who the bookies haven't fully cottoned on to yet.

To date, Eustace has sent just 12 runners to the meeting since 2022, resulting in 4 wins at 25/1, 14.1, 6/1 & 5/1, along with three runners-up and a third.

At the moment, Eustace has nine entries at Ascot next week ✅

2️⃣ Favourites. Good news if you’re a favourite backer as they returned a profit in three of the last four years at Royal Ascot - a period when, importantly, it was traditional, good to firm ground. 

Three-year-old favourites in particular did very well during this period.

There could be more of the same this time around with the sun shining.

3️⃣ The draw will have a huge say. Big fields down the Straight Course can favour those up the stands’ side (higher numbered stalls), as was the case earlier in the season for the Victoria Cup - a 28-runner race in which the first four home were drawn in stalls: 26-12-22-23. 

4️⃣ Placepots. Don’t be afraid to have a go as they can pay big for just a £1 stake. Last year on day one saw a dividend of over £2,700, while day four went ballistic with a £26,000 payout - and, you don’t even have to find the winner! 

5️⃣ Handicaps. They will be fiercely competitive, both in size and strength - every other runner seems to come from a big trainer and won last time out!

Here are a few pointers:

Tuesday - Ascot Stakes:
Stick with the lowest-drawn runners.

Look for runners that won 2-4 handicaps.

Wednesday - Royal Hunt Cup:
Stick with runners that won during their last three runs.
If pushed, side with four-year-olds that were fancied last time out.

Thursday - Britannia Stakes:
Go high with the draw.
Ignore anything at 25/1 or bigger.
Ideally ran in a class 3, class 4 or class 5 race last time.

Friday - Sandringham Stakes:
Go high with the draw.
Stick with in-form runners that made the top three last time.

Saturday - don’t stress, I’ll be back.

Good luck until then.

Some of the big trainers have been given stable tours and interviews in the build-up to Ascot, and here’s the pick from the At The Races site…

Trainer George Boughey on Bow Echo, who goes for Tuesday's St James's Palace Stakes: "He worked on the all-weather on Tuesday and then on good to soft ground on the July course on Friday and was electric. For me, he is an unbeaten Guineas winner whose best days are ahead of him."

Trainer Karl Burke on Venetian Sun, who goes for Friday’s Commonwealth Cup: "She is bang on target for the Commonwealth Cup, and she is in great shape. She was very impressive in the Sandy Lane last time."

Trainer Roger Varian on Indalo, who goes for Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup: "He’s a hardy horse and is still progressive. He was runner-up in the Cambridgeshire last year and runner-up on his reappearance at Newbury when he was about 90 per cent. He’ll be 100 per cent at Ascot."

📌 Our jockey to follow at Royal Ascot is Oisin Murphy.

He is in sparkling form with nine winners during the last seven days, and is very good at riding Ascot’s Straight Course.

► ITV (free): York: 1.50, 2.25, 3.00, 3.35; Sandown: 1.32, 2.42, 3.17; Chester: 2.10

Boo-hoo, that’s it for another week 😢

We’re off to get the shorts and sandals back out of the cupboard.

Next weekend, we tackle the final day of Royal Ascot.

Until then…

…keep ‘em peeled 👀

The Paddock Report Team.

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