🏇 Newmarket’s Guineas Festival: The Full Report

How’s it going?

All set for Guineas weekend?

If not, we’ve done a bit of research to help out.

Feel free to use our info for picking your own fancies, or follow some of our suggestions.

We aim to inform and steer racing folk in the right direction. More of an early starting point for Saturday than a tipping sheet.

And, with the calendar having just hit May, there’s plenty to come…

May 1-3 – The Guineas Festival at Newmarket
May 6-8 – Chester May Festival
May 8-9 – Victoria Cup at Ascot
May 13-15 – York Dante Festival
May 16 – Lockinge Stakes at Newbury
May 22-23 – Goodwood May Festival
May 23-24 – Irish Guineas Weekend at the Curragh

👉 The big race is Newmarket’s 2,000 Guineas at 3.35.

👉 The 1,000 Guineas is on Sunday, also at 3.35.

👉 Saturday’s racing gets underway at 12.45.

👉 Doncaster, Goodwood and Thirsk race on the Flat.

👉 Summer jumps racing takes place at Hexham and Uttoxeter.

👉 The final day of 2026 Punchestown Festival starts at 2.30.

👉 America’s Kentucky Derby closes the day at 23.57.

You’ll like these…

1) Stick with trainer Ed Walker.

Ed Walker has just enjoyed his best-ever April, returning a tally of 9 wins from 36 runners (+£17).

His next best tally for April was in 2024 when he hit 8-25 (+£26), prior to enjoying a terrific May at 13-54 (+£28). He also trained 15 winners in May 2025.

Now could be the time to follow him.

2) Races to ‘Go Low’.

If you’re just joining the party this Flat season, then bookies now offer odds on winning distances.

In Goodwood’s 2.05 (live on ITV), there weren’t many easy victories in this race, with the last seven winning margins on the small side: nose, short-head, neck, ½L, nose, head, ¾L.

Similarly, Newmarket’s big sprint at 2.55 saw plenty of close finishes down the years: 1¼L, head, ½L, neck, neck, ¾L, neck, neck, neck, ½L.

3) ‘Try High’ at Thirsk.

There were only five previous runnings of Thirsk’s staying handicap at 3.15 (1m6f), but runners finished fairly strung out. Indeed, each of the winning margins were: 4½L, 2½L, 1L, 2¾L, 2¾L.

4) Value in the Thirsk Hunt Cup (2.40).

Favourites found it hard to win this valuable handicap (live on ITV), with the last market leader triumphant back in 2013.

Winners since then included odds of: 66/1, 18/1, 16/1, 14/1, 12/1, 9/1, 8/1, 8/1, 13/2, 6/1, 6/1, 11/2. Those big odds may also have something to do with 11 of the last 12 Hunt Cup winners having failed to win during their three previous runs ahead of Thirsk. Four to six-year-olds that raced during the last two months also did well.

5) Fitness holds the key.

History shows that Newmarket’s 4.45 favoured improving four-year-olds with a fitness edge over runners making their seasonal reappearance. In fact, they won 10 of the last 11 runnings.

6) Punchestown banker?

Punchestown’s Mares’ Champion Hurdle (4.15) proved very receptive to winners of Cheltenham’s David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle – all four that attempted the double triumphed. Wodhooh will be the latest to try.

It’s the first Classic race of the Flat season on Saturday – 15 runners head to the post.

Sponsoring the race are Betfred, so here are their runners and riders…

Some quickfire 2,000 Guineas facts…

Trainer Aidan O’Brien won this ten times, including in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019. Since then, however, trainer Charlie Appleby triumphed on three occasions in 2022, 2024, 2025.

The Guineas favourite won just once in the last ten years (2017). Prior to that, they struck four times in five years.

None of the last 10 Guineas winners returned bigger than 16/1 – those at 18/1 or were 0-69.

Ability-wise, the last 15 Guineas winners were officially rated 109 or higher.

April’s Newmarket and Newbury trials weren’t reliable during the last 10 years. Since 2016, runners from Newmarket’s April Craven meeting finished 0-30 in the 2,000 Guineas, while those from Newbury were 1-14.

All but one of the last ten Guineas winners ran at least three times in their career and recorded a 60% or better win rate.

The career win record of 2,000 Guineas winners pre-Newmarket

2025 – 2 wins from 3 runs (67%)
2024 – 3 wins from 3 runs (100%)
2023 – 3 wins from 4 runs (75%)
2022 – 2 wins from 3 runs (67%)
2021 – 3 wins from 4 runs (75%)
2020 – 2 wins from 4 runs (50%)
2019 – 2 wins from 3 runs (67%)
2018 – 3 wins from 3 runs (100%)
2017 – 5 wins from 6 runs (83%)
2016 – 3 wins from 6 runs (60%)

Based on the evidence above, we’re overruling the poor record of favourites in recent years to be with Bow Echo.

He has the ideal race profile and handles good to firm ground, and while he hasn’t had a race in 2026, he’s reportedly worked well in his preparation.

King’s Trail is also interesting at fair odds.

Unbeaten in both races, King’s Trail won a low-key race on his reappearance at Kempton in March, a tactic his trainer Charlie Appleby used for several of his previous Guineas winners.

Sunday sees the second Classic race of the Flat season – this time for the fillies, and where 19 runners head to post.

Here are some quickfire facts regarding this year’s race…

Trainer Aidan O’Brien won this seven times – the last five were in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, including at 14/1, 10/1, 9/1, 4/1.

Only two Guineas favourites won in the last ten years – in 2025 and 2016.

Ability-wise, all but two of the last 14 Guineas winners were officially rated 106 or higher – the exceptions were 100 and 99.

Each of the last 10 winners made the top three of a Group race.

All but one of the last 10 winners experienced at least four career runs beforehand.

Unlike the 2,000 Guineas, the females had a much lower win-rate heading to Newmarket. All but one of the last ten Guineas winners had a 60% or lower win rate. Only last year’s winner came here unbeaten.

The career win record of 1,000 Guineas winners pre-Newmarket

2025 – 4 wins from 4 runs (100%)
2024 – 1 win from 2 runs (50%)
2023 – 4 wins from 7 runs (57%)
2022 – 2 wins from 9 runs(22%)
2021 – 1 win from 8 runs (12%)
2020 – 3 wins from 7 runs (43%)
2019 – 2 wins from 7 runs (29%)
2018 – 3 wins from 9 runs (33%)
2017 –1 win from 4 runs (25%)
2016 – 3 wins from 5 runs (60%)

True Love comes from the Aidan O’Brien yard that also has the current favourite for this, Precise. However, we prefer the position True Love will be starting from in stall 16 compared to the favourite in stall 2. True Love came through her trial in Ireland with flying colours last month and handles good to firm ground.

Two at bigger prices are Evolutionist and Azleet. Both recorded career best wins in landing their trials last month.

Here are Saturday’s diamonds in the rough to ‘make the frame’ 💎.

We’ll leave it up to you how many ‘places’ to take.

2.10 Thirsk Distant Shore
5.10 Doncaster Noelan Star
6.15 Hexham Sonigino
7.02 Doncaster Mafting
7.15 Hexham Royal Deeside
8.02 Doncaster Zubaru

Just one this week…

8.02 Doncaster Evocative Spark

Seven of his eight career wins came around a left-handed track, including his latest double. His record when running on a long straight – as at Doncaster – is 0-12, with just one placed effort.

After a couple of near-hits last weekend, our resident racing guru has five fancies for Saturday – steady, old son.

Here’s who The Purist is backing on Saturday…

1.45 Newmarket Brian

Double Rush is a short-priced favourite for this sprint handicap, meaning there is ‘each-way value’ around. Brian is back down to a nice weight and shaped better than it looked when eighth last time. He won his only race at Newmarket and could finish with a rattle up the hill at a big each-way price.

2.55 Newmarket Rumstar

Rumstar won this race last year on his reappearance and has been prepped for a follow-up. Tracks with a stiff finish (uphill) like Newmarket really suit this sprinter, and his trainer hit top form this week. Hopefully, he’ll have worked with some of those in-form stablemates on the gallops ahead of this seasonal return.

4.25 Thirsk Wheels Of Fire

A speed machine who impressed when winning over the minimum trip of 5f at Musselburgh a month ago. However, he stepped back up a furlong next time and found himself racing away from the main action owing to a disadvantageous starting stall. He’s back to 5f for Saturday’s race, and considering he’s had 19 career races, only four were over 5f, where he finished: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 1st.

5.05 Goodwood Siren Suit

Trainer John and Thady Gosden do well with horses that are first-time gelded – yes, they’ve had their tackle removed to help concentration. Siren Suit progressed in his first three races last year before flopping in a big race at Ascot. He returns to calmer waters at Goodwood for his reappearance, and team Gosden remain bang in top form.

5.55 Newmarket Twisting Physics

Caught the eye on his reappearance last month when 3l behind Rathgar – a winner since. Although this is a drop back in trip, it will be a good test down the long one-mile straight and he has plenty of pace to aim at. Definitely shapes like a horse who’ll be winning a nice prize this spring/summer.

If you’re new to racing, it must feel like there’s a festival of some sort every other week…well, there kind of is.

Chester stage their big three-day May Festival from Wednesday, climaxing on Friday with the Chester Cup.

One of the major talking points is the draw – in other words, the starting gate from where a horse starts. Think starting blocks in athletics, only without the stagger.

With Chester being such a tight, left-handed track (basically a circle), a position near the inside rail from the low-numbered stalls (1,2,3,4,5) is key. Those drawn high and wide can lose their race after the first bend.

A couple of races that were historically open to this ‘draw edge’ can be found on day two (Thursday) of this year’s meeting:

1.30: Handicap, 5f

The last 13 winners were drawn from these stalls:

5, 2, 3, 3, 1, 4, 1, 1, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2

3.40: Handicap, 7½f

The last eight winners were drawn from these stalls:

1, 3, 6, 1, 2, 3, 2, 5

As for a jockey to follow, simple – Ryan Moore.

Moore’s rides in the last five years at the Chester May Festival:

23 wins from 50 rides (£1 on each returned a +£24 profit)

Trainer Aidan O’Brien provided most of those winners for Moore, so make a note of any runner in Thursday’s Dee Stakes, as O’Brien won that race 10 times in the last 13 years.

Racing regulars may think the above pointers appear obvious, but that is the case at this meeting. In fact, even the clear favourites came out in profit during the last five May Festivals – 41 wins from 101 runs for a +£6 profit to £1 stakes.

And, if you’re watching it on ITV, try spotting the odd sporting celebrity in the stands.

Our money’s on darts champ Luke Littler getting the camera treatment. He’s shown a strong interest in racing of late, and just happens to be playing down the road in Leeds on Thursday night. Anyone offering odds?

📌 With King Charles strutting his stuff Stateside this week, we thought it only right to mention Saturday night’s Kentucky Derby – yeehah, and all that 🤠

AKA the ‘Run For The Roses’ (see image below), the Kentucky Derby is the first leg of the US Triple Crown – similar to our Classics.

The second leg is the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on May 16.

The final leg is the Belmont Stakes in New York on June 6.

We haven’t a clue who’ll win – maybe King Charles got a tip at the White House? – but we do like the look of their unique ice cream for the event. Who needs finger-licking fried chicken!?...

Anyone for Cheltenham Choc Chip?

PS. If you’re thinking of watching it live, 23:57 Saturday night, Sky Sports Racing.

Sadly, it’s the end of this week’s report.

However, we’re back in seven days for Ascot, and a key Derby trial in Ireland.

Until then…

..keep ‘em peeled 👀

The Paddock Report Team.