🏇 Newmarket July Festival: The Full Report

How’s it going?

All set for a huge Saturday afternoon of racing? ☀️

We didn’t think it was possible to cram so much into this week’s Paddock Report - but we’ve managed it 😅

The bonus is once racing’s finished, it’s straight onto England’s big one at 10 pm ⚽

Let’s hope for an afternoon winner to cover a cheeky takeaway before the game 🥡

👉 There are 12 races on ITV4 - 6 from Newmarket, 4 at York, and 2 at Ascot.

👉 Newmarket’s Group 1 July Cup is the headline act at 4.35.

👉 Two of the summer’s biggest Flat handicaps take place within 20 minutes - Newmarket’s Bunbury Cup (3.25) and York’s John Smith’s Cup (3.45).

👉 Ascot’s 1.55 and 5.20 both have big fields up the straight course and could favour high-drawn stalls up the stands’ side - remember Royal Ascot? 

👉 There could be a low draw bias in Chester’s 13-runner 5f handicap (2.10).

👉 Jockeys Billy Loughnane (57 winners) and Oisin Murphy (54) are neck and neck in the Flat Jockeys Championship - both are riding very well.

👉 The 1,000 Guineas winner True Love bids to get back to winning ways in France’s Group Prix Jean Prat on Sunday - True Love, Prat…we’ve all been there.

👉 Good news for jumps fans as Towcester is set to make a comeback next year, having closed its gates in 2018.

🔢 On July Cup day at Newmarket for the last five years:

Trainer Charlie Appleby had 8 wins from 27 runners, with a further 10 placed, for a +£18 return to a £1 stake; Jane Chapple-Hyam had 3 winners from just 5 runners (11/1, 9/1 & 7/2).

Runners with one previous outing at Newmarket (July) struck 10 times from 74 runs and returned +£63 to a £1 stake.

🔢  On John Smith’s Cup day at York for the last five years:

Favourites (including joint-favourites) returned +£8 to a £1 stake - the Listed and Group 3 races proved especially kind.

Trainer Andrew Balding had 4 wins from 12 runners plus 2 placed for a +£37 return to a £1 stake.

York’s finale is a 20-runner sprint (5.30) - the last five winners were drawn in stalls: 2 (of 18), 3 (of 18), 9 (of 16), 2 (of 20), 4 (of 19).

🔢 On Summer Mile day at Ascot for the last five years:

Runners with just one previous outing at Ascot produced 12 wins from 81 runs and returned a +£27 return to a £1 stake.

In-form runners that made the top three last time had 22 wins from 136 runs and returned a +£29 return to a £1 stake (a top-four effort or worse last time were 10-189 -£101).

Trainer Ian Williams had 3 wins from 10 runners for a +£22 return to a £1 stake; Charlie Fellowes had 2 wins from just 2 runners (16/1 & 3/1).

Diego Maradona and his ‘Hand of God’ rate as one of the biggest cheats of all time - where’s VAR when you need it?

None of us are cheats, though - our sheet is just a name.

Featuring the latest big-race roll of honour alongside ten-year trends analysis, our ‘Super Trends’ reveal the key stats for all the big races.

Use these trends to find your own selections, or if you’re short of time and can’t access a formbook, check our short-list of selections below each race.

🏅 Behike
🏅 Trefor
🏅 Mesaafi

🏅 Two Tribes
🏅 Great Acclaim
🏅 Elarak

🏅 Quai De Bethune
🏅 Will Scarlet
🏅 Pearl River

🏅 Venetian Sun
🏅 Commanche Brave
🏅 Mission Control

For those just tuning in, The Purist is our resident racing expert.

He doesn’t do social media.

He does, however, know his stuff.

Last week, we followed The Purist with Indalo and Mythical Bay, who won at 9/4 and 4/1.

Here’s who The Purist is backing on Saturday…

2.15 Newmarket Tarot

Either I’ve got this horribly wrong or wonderfully right, but I was shocked to see Tarot as the outsider of the field. She improved to win at Kempton on her final run last year before a pleasing reappearance at Chester 42 days ago when horribly drawn wide in stall 11, getting little room on the home bend. She should strip fitter for that outing and enjoy the return to 7f - the trip her dam won over.

3.45 York Hand Of God

Recorded a career-best win at Newbury in May, and appears to have been kept aside for this. The race he won at Newbury is historically a good pointer, with the 2025 winner Burrito winning over this course and distance next time out.

4.35 Newmarket Venetian Sun

An uncomplicated bet. Unbeaten in six races sprinting, handles fast ground, and won more snugly than it looked at Royal Ascot - her trainer saying afterwards that she ‘hasn’t even had a race’. Takes on her elders for the first time, which has helped keep her price decent, and three-year-olds did manage to win four of the last 10 runnings. 

4.45 Ascot - Hot And Cold 

Hot And Cold is improving and goes for the hat-trick after winning at Newcastle and then Salisbury - the latter a race with a good history. He coped well with the fast ground that day and was coming away at the end, so Ascot’s uphill finish should be ideal.

We owe you one from last week when only two were nominated 😇

What A Tahoo (3yo)

Not a world-beater, but improved to win at Ripon last month and was unlucky when blocked at Musselburgh.

Northern Empire (3yo)

Below par during the spring and subsequently gelded. Showed more on his return at Epsom nine days ago - minus the tackle - when making late headway (not much whip or clearest run); dropped 1lb for that. 

Bourbon Blues (3yo)

Went into our database when unlucky at Ascot, before getting buried in 12th of 14 at Sandown last week. Fortunately, the form-comment writers missed him getting blocked, with the Racing Post stating ‘towards rear throughout’. He’s been dropped 3lb for both runs and could be Goodwood-bound at the end of July.

Gangsta Man (4yo)

This final horse is a good example of a method we like to use among the team - it was The Purist who introduced us to it earlier this year.

The history of certain races have a strong record in pointing up future winners - think university and academies, or in racing terms Cheltenham’s Champion Bumper.

Some of these events regularly slip under the radar, such as the race won by Gangsta Man at Hamilton on June 25.

Hamilton, June 25, 5f Handicap - Past winners & subsequent results

2024: Jordan Electrics - Won 15/8, Won 5/1, Won 5/2
2023: Count d’Orsay - Won 9/2
2021: Show Me Show Me - lost, lost, Won 10/1
2019: Dapper Man - Won 10/11, Won 10/11
2018: Marnie James - Won 9/2

You get the picture.

What’s important is the class of that year’s winner - above-par, average or below-par?

The figures we look at tell us Gangsta Man comes out as the best winner of this race during the last 10 years, and he could be back in the winner’s enclosure again this summer.

Richard Spencer did an interview with At The Races, and was complimentary about Start Me Up, who goes for a Chester hat-trick on Saturday (3.18).

“We took him to Dubai thinking he was a very nice two-year-old, but things just didn’t go to plan there. I think he is still well handicapped and he is improving. He could go back to Chester, or we may wait and go to Glorious Goodwood. He is a horse that is on the right side of the handicapper”.

📌 What A Tahoo, who we mentioned earlier as one to follow, is entered at Beverley on Tuesday.

🔥 Trainer Michael Herrington’s runners are in excellent form - 7 of his last 16 runners won, including on Tuesday and Wednesday.

► ITV4 (free): Newmarket 1.40, 2.15, 2.52, 3.25, 4.00; York: 2.39, 3.12, 3.45; Ascot: 1.55, 2.27.

Next Saturday is Newbury's Super Sprint Stakes and the Irish Oaks.

It’s also the World Cup third-place playoff - try saying that pissed, which you might have to should England not make the final.

Until then…

..keep ‘em peeled 👀

The Paddock Report Team.

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