🏇 Newbury’s Lockinge Stakes: The Full Report

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First, some news. We’ve had a reshuffle this week – get set for some new sections.

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Week 8 of the Flat season centres around Newbury on Saturday.

Newbury’s headline act is the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes over a mile.

Newmarket provides ITV’s other meeting.

York’s two big Classic trials took place in midweek, won by Item (6/1 for the Derby) and Legacy Link (5/1 for the Oaks).

The French Guineas also took place in Paris last weekend. Rayif won the 2,000 (Royal Ascot next), while Aidan O’Brien trained the 1,000 winner, Diamond Necklace (possibly Oaks-bound).

There are 21 days until the Oaks at Epsom.

There are 22 days until the Derby at Epsom.

We plan to always keep Paddock Report free so everyone can continue getting the key racing stories, trends and insight each week.

But after plenty of requests from readers for more in-depth analysis and extra content that could help give them an edge, we’re exploring the idea of an additional premium newsletter alongside the free version. It would also allow us to put even more into the content each week.

With that in mind…

You won’t find these anywhere else. Honest.

John and Thady Gosden: 4 wins from 9 runs (+£29 to a £1 stake) in Group races at Newbury (on Lockinge day in recent years).

Roger Varian: 3 wins from 5 runs in handicaps (+£14 to a £1 stake) in handicaps at Newbury (on Lockinge day in recent years).

Andrew Balding is 3 wins from 10 runs (+£5 to a £1 stake) in handicaps at Newmarket (on this corresponding Saturday in recent years).

At Newmarket this season, there have been 10 winners at 14/1 or bigger: 50/1, 28/1, 28/1, 22/1, 20/1, 18/1, 16/1, 16/1, 14/1, 14/1

At Newmarket’s Guineas meeting two weeks ago, both Classics were won by high stalls – 15 and 16. Check the first race at 1.42 for any repeat bias.

There were small winning distances in the following races (on this corresponding Saturday in recent years):

1.52 Thirsk: 1L, ¾L, ¾L, ½L, ½L, nose, 1¾L, ¾L, ¾L
2.40 Wexford: Neck, neck, neck, ½L, short-head

There were big winning distances in the following races (on this corresponding Saturday in recent years):

4.25 Wexford: 4¼L, 8L, 3¾L, 1½L, 8L
4.30 Bangor: 4¼L, ½L, 13L, 7½L, 5½L, 7L
4.55 Wexford: 6½L, 12L, 10L, 3½L, 19L
5.15 Navan: 3¼L, head, 5½L, 3¼L, 11L, 5½L

Uttoxeter’s 5.50 was won by the favourite 8 times in the last 9 years – 7 were odds-on: 4/11, 1/5, 2/13, 2/9, 1/5, 1/7, 10/11.

The following two combos are in profit during the current 2026 Flat season:

Jockey/Trainer: Sean Levey/Richard Hannon away from maiden races:
Non-maiden races: 12 wins from 47 runs for a +£19 profit (A/E 1.55)
Maiden races: 0 wins from 17 races (-17)

Jockey/Trainer: Kieran Shoemark/Ed Walker in handicaps:
Handicaps: 5 wins from 17 runs for a +£17 profit (A/E 1.67)
Other races: 2 wins from 16 races (-2)

Elsewhere, keep an eye out for…

Trainer James Owen’s runners in first-time headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, etc.). He returned good figures in 2025, and the trend has continued so far in 2026:

2026: 7-32 (+21) A/E 1.27
2025: 25-111 (+22) A/E 1.19

The Paddock Report team have donned their capes to produce ‘Super Trends’.

Featuring the latest big-race roll of honour alongside ten-year trends analysis.

It’s a chance to see the most important trends, and where value lies via the A/E column (actual/expected).

We’ve also added our shortlist of contenders with the right trends attributes. Feel free to try ours or pick your own; we’re not fussed.

This week, we focus on three TV races from Newbury…

2.35 Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) - 1m

3.10 Carnarvon Stakes (Listed) - 6f

3.45 London Gold Cup (Handicap) - 1m2f

Here are two trainers whose runners are currently outperforming their odds…

Ralph Beckett – May 8 to May 14:

7 wins from 23 runs (+£38 to a £1 stake)
Winners’ odds included: 18/1, 12/1 & 11/1
Runners-up odds included: 11/1, 17/2, 15/2 & 6/1

Eve Johnson Houghton – May 9 to May 14:

3 wins from 10 runs (+£11 to a £1 stake)
Winners’ odds included: 10/1 & 7/1
Runners-up odds included: 50/1 & 12/1

Here’s who The Purist is backing on Saturday…

4.25 Thirsk Mission Command

Went into the notebook with a strong-finishing third over a stiff mile at Pontefract in April. A check on his pedigree that day showed his dam (mother) was a winner over a mile, yet this was only Mission Command’s first try at the trip, having raced mainly over sprints. Since this eye-catching run, he’s run twice back at 7f, which didn’t suit, but this return to the mile trip he was bred for should help.

4.37 Newmarket Guest House

There are plenty of sexy runners from big yards in this race, which may offer some value about Guest House from the less-fashionable George Margarson yard. A winner over a mile at Yarmouth last month - often a track that provides plenty of Newmarket winners – he steps up another two furlongs to 1m2. His dam (mother) won over 1m4f, so there could be more to come.

5.00 Newbury Indalo

Has the look of a horse that could be winning a major handicap this season. Ended last term with a superb second at Newmarket in September when splitting two very good horses. This will be Indalo’s first outing since (231 days), and it’s possible he may need it ahead of Royal Ascot, but he’ll go close if tuned up for this assignment.

Not all favourites win, and here are several worth taking on…

4.30 Bangor Special John

If not much rain falls, then that may count against Special John as both wins came on good to soft. Both wins were also on right-handed courses.

5.20 Uttoxeter Universal Secret

A runner-up and winner the last twice, both on right-handed tracks. He’s been mainly kept away from left-handed tracks, but was unplaced on five previous attempts.

8.15 Doncaster Moonhall Lass

Won her last two races with seven and eight runners. She lost all 14 races when faced with 12 runners or more - unplaced in 13 of them.

The Paddock Report team has a list of horses in our database we are following.

Sadly, they don’t always run on a Saturday for us to flag up, so here are three that might fly under the radar. They are worth noting should they appear on another day.

Classic Encounter – had no luck with the draw in two outings this season. We’re waiting for him when drawn better.

Dosman – Not had the smoothest passage the last twice at Newcastle and then Ascot. Expected to go close when he gets a break.

Jet Warrior – Found trouble over 6f at Thirsk last month before first-time cheekpieces over 7f not ideal last time. A fast-run 6f should suit (entered over 6f at Ayr on Wednesday).

Ed Bethell gave an interview to At The Races in midweek, and his comments regarding the filly Noche Clasica caught our attention…

“She was really impressive on her seasonal debut at Musselburgh. She has come out of that race good and she has gone up to 96 now and she will go for a Listed Fillies’ at Haydock at the end of this month.”

We like trainers who have targets for their horses.

We spoke about the draw (starting stalls) in recent weeks, a vital part of racing that can offer an edge.

The ‘pace of a race’ can also offer an edge. Admittedly, these opportunities can prove a tad trickier to identify.

If just one front-runner lines up for a race, there’s a chance they might enjoy an advantage in being able to dictate matters up front before kicking for home, catching the rest of the field cold – if ridden correctly, of course.

It’s always worth scanning the running styles of runners before a race (some sites have at-a-glance pace charts) to try and spot potential scenarios, such as Saturday’s 7.08 at Doncaster, where Watchdog is the only confirmed front-runner in the race.

📌 If you’re having a late one on Saturday, the second leg of the US Triple Crown – the Preakness Stakes – takes place one minute after midnight; Sky Sports Racing have it live 🍿

► ITV (free): Newbury: 1.25, 2.00, 2.35, 3.10, 3.45; Newmarket: 1.42, 2.50, 3.27

It’s Irish Guineas weekend when we next meet.

Get set for more twists and turns in the Derby and Oaks ante-post markets.

Until then…

..keep ‘em peeled 👀

The Paddock Report Team.

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