How’s it going?
If you’ve not checked the calendar, Saturday is the final day of ‘Wet February’.
And, right on cue, the sun is rearing its head in time for March ⛅
Good news indeed ahead of racing across England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland this weekend.
Kelso open their gates in Scotland for the track’s biggest Saturday of the year.
ITV’s main channel will be there, and also at Doncaster for the Grimthorpe Gold Cup, plus Newbury‘s Greatwood Gold Cup.
Before that, a quick update.
Our resident racing guru, The Purist, has been placed on the naughty step near the bottom of this newsletter owing to a loss of form.
It was a step we felt necessary in an attempt to spark our ‘Haaland’ of the PR Team back into form ahead of Cheltenham.
Harsh, maybe, but there was no ‘hairdryer treatment’ involved.
Cheltenham Chat
Constitution Hill will not run in the Champion Hurdle 😔
The New Lion, favourite for the Champion Hurdle, is pleasing connections at home and “looks magnificent” (The Sporting Life).
No Drama This End went for a midweek gallop at Kempton. His trainer said, “that was brilliant this morning and just what he wanted.” (At The Races).
Mighty Park won by a wide margin on his debut over hurdles last month. Willie Mullins said, “he has to be a hell of a horse to do what he did.“ (Horse & Hound)
Maestro Conti looks ready for Cheltenham. He’s one of Dan Skelton’s “best chances of the week” and “his training has been exceptional.” (Racing UK)
Panic Attack is also pleasing Skelton, who said, “her form at home has been phenomenal, she looks great.” (At The Races)
Meetmebythesea didn’t like the mud at Newbury. Connections said he “wants good to soft, good ground, not heavy” (At The Races).
Five Things Worth Knowing This Weekend
The ground is drying out - in most parts of Britain, anyway.
On Kelso’s card, look for value away from the top three in the betting.
As of Friday morning, Trainer Nicky Henderson’s last 15 runners finished: 2-1-8-1-3-3-1-2-2-1-5-1-2-1-2.
Trainer Harry Derham won the last two renewals of Kelso’s 4:00.
Note runners ridden by a 3lb or 5lb conditional jockey at Newbury. This means they get a weight advantage because of their jockey. You can find them like this:
The 100% Club
The club is open to horses with a 100% place record under favoured conditions.
Handy nuggets for your weekend Bet Builders.
You can choose different odds for a Top 4, Top 5, Top 6, Top 7 finish, and so on, depending on the number of runners in a race.
William Hill & bet365 lead the way with choice. Boylesports, SpreadEx and Betfair Sportsbook are three others to look at.
So, let’s open the door to this weekend’s exclusive members:
Rodney (2.40 Newbury) - Charlie Deutsch riding:
1st of 6 - 1st of 11 - 1st of 7
Cracking Rhapsody (2.55 Kelso) - in hurdles at Kelso:
2nd of 4 - 1st of 6 - 1st of 17 - 1st of 9 - 1st of 18
Dedicated Hero (2.55 Kelso) - in races at Kelso:
1st of 12 - 1st of 10 - 1st of 12
Issam (3.45 Newbury) - over distances of 2m4f to 2m4½f
2nd of 11 - 3rd of 8 - 2nd of 9 - 1st of 8 - 1st of 7
Looking Past the Favourites
Not all favourites win.
Here are several that may be worth taking on this weekend ⚔️
2.15 Kelso - Starmount
Drying conditions may not suit - both wins came on soft ground.
3.30 Kelso - Good To Be Alive
As above. Drying conditions may not suit - both wins came on heavy and soft ground.
3.45 Newbury - Vincenzo
Winless around a left-handed track (0-8). The last favourite to win this was in 2015.
4:58 Malina Road
Only one 6-year-old won this going back to 2012 (1-14). Also has a penalty to carry.
A Few Stats
We all like a good stat, right? 🔎
1.55 Doncaster - Each of the last 10 winners of this race were 11/2 or shorter.
2.10 Newbury - 5 of the last 8 winners of this race were 6-year-olds, each of whom won last time out.
2.55 Kelso - The last five renewals saw winning margins (distance in lengths from the winner back to the runner-up) of: 1¼, 4½, 2, 1½ & 1¼ - check your bookie’s winning distance odds.
4:15 Doncaster - 18 of the last 20 winners of this race came from the first three in the betting.
Trainer Form (Last 7 Days)
Jockey Form (Last 7 Days)
Under The Radar
Some trainers may not boast big numbers, but they remain bang in form 🔥
Ewan Whillans
Recent runners: 2nd of 10 - 4th of 9 - 1st of 10 - 4th of 11 - 1st of 6 - 1st of 11
Weekend runner: Cracking Rhapsody (2.55 Kelso)
Lucy Wadham
Recent runners: 1st of 8 - 1st of 4 - 7th of 9 - 3rd of 10 - PU of 9 - 1st of 12
Weekend runners: Berks And Bucks (3.05 Doncaster), Huffin An A Puffin (4.23 Newbury), Cotton Socks (4.50 Doncaster).
Richard Hobson
Recent Runners: 1st of 4 - 1st of 4 - 5th of 8
Weekend runners: Some Scope (2:30 Doncaster), Docpickedme (4:15 Doncaster)
If you don’t know where to find a specific trainer or jockey’s runners for the weekend, try this…
William Hill has a clever A-Z function that pinpoints them within seconds.
So, if you were looking for jockey Charlie Deutsch's rides:
The Purist
Locked in the broom cupboard beneath the staircase since Sunday, The Purist crept out to leave a trio of his purest weekend fancies on the naughty step.
Our guru is now back in the cupboard studying for Cheltenham.
THE SHORTEST PRICE - OLD GREGORIAN (5.10 Kelso)
Likes this track and goes well after a long break. Looks to have been saved for this by a yard that won the same event 12 months ago.
THE MEDIUM PRICE - HUFFIN AN A PUFFIN (4.23 Newbury)
Won over course and distance on debut before following up 23 days ago at a furlong shorter. Will prefer the return to this trip, and the yard remains in top form.
THE BIGGEST PRICE - SPECTACULARSUNRISE (2.55 Kelso)
Valid reasons for both losses since impressing over course and distance in December. Conditional jockey takes off a handy 5lb.
We Almost Forgot…
Cracking Rhapsody bids to win Kelso's Morebattle Hurdle (2.55) for the third time. Jockey Craig Nichol said his work at home “couldn’t have gone any better.” (Scottish Sun).
Colin Keane (former Irish champion Flat jockey) debuts at the Cheltenham Festival and rides The Mourne Rambler in the Champion Bumper (Racing Post).
The official Cheltenham Festival Preview Evening takes place at Cheltenham itself on Thursday 5 March, while At The Races staged theirs last Tuesday, which can be viewed for free on their site.
A long spell of dry weather is forecast from Monday. Expect the formbook to be turned upside down as the good ground runners start to shine.
📺 Quick TV Guide
► ITV (free): Kelso 1:10, 1:40, 2:15, 2:55, 3:30; Newbury 3:15, 3:45; Doncaster 1:25, 1:55, 2:30.
► Sky Sports Racing (free): Doncaster, Newbury, Lingfield, Southwell.
► Racing UK (subscription): Kelso, Navan.
Next weekend is the big one.
We’ll touch briefly on Saturday’s Sandown card, but the PR Team’s main focus will be to prep you for Cheltenham.
It all gets underway on Tuesday, 10 March.
We’ll reveal…
Who’ll come out on top between Britain & Ireland?
Which day favours the favourites?
What are the top three killer stats?
Which trainer should be followed?
Will The Purist be back in form? 🙏
Tune in next Friday.
In the meantime..
..keep ‘em peeled.