Happy Easter! 🐣
The fact you’re reading this tells us the Easter Bunny did its job by hopping into your email box with a stats-packed report for the weekend 🐰
Yes, the long weekend is already underway. And, just like a mini-Christmas involving too much chocolate, trips to Homebase, racing on TV, and not knowing if Monday is Sunday 🤪, Easter really is a gift from the racing gods.
This weekend sees meetings galore on Saturday, Easter Sunday and Easter Monday, both on the Flat and over jumps 🐴
Monday’s Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse – near Dublin – is the headline act ☘️
The IGF forms part of Fairyhouse’s lively three-day Easter Festival from Saturday to Monday 🍺 – similar to a music festival, just with no tents.
Weekend Info
👉 The big guns:
Saturday - Scottish Sprint Cup (Musselburgh 3.42)
Saturday - RYBO Handicap Hurdle (Fairyhouse 5.00)
Sunday - Sussex Champion Hurdle (Plumpton 4.05)
Sunday - Gold Cup (Fairyhouse 5.00)
Monday - Sussex National (Plumpton 4.25)
Monday - Irish Grand National (Fairyhouse 5.00)
👉 Willie Mullins is the trainer to follow at Fairyhouse, especially his fancied ones.
Mullins’s recent record at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival:
£1 placed on runners at 12/1 or shorter: 42 wins from 169 runs for a +£54 profit.
£1 placed on runners at 14/1 or bigger: 1 win from 76 runs for a -£57 loss.
👉 At Musselburgh, clear second favourites (8-28 +£7) outmuscled clear favourites (4-33 -£22) in recent years at this very meeting.
👉 Trainer Dan Skelton had four winners on Tuesday.
Racing Quotes
These quotes may not change your life, but they’re worth noting…
🗣️ ‘He’s the sort of horse that keeps finding plenty. I think he’ll stay very well.’ Trainer Ben Pauling on Monday’s Irish Grand National favourite The Jukebox Kid (Racing Post).
🗣️ Sixmilebridge bypassed Cheltenham’s drying ground for Fairyhouse. Trainer Fergal O'Brien said: ‘At the minute it's soft, soft to yielding and they think it will be soft ground,’ adding that ‘he deserves his chance to go over there.’ (Sporting Life).
🗣️ Ice In The Veins will enjoy the ground drying out at Haydock. Trainer Dan Skelton said: ‘He's a nice horse who I've had in mind for this race for a while now…it's just all down to better ground for him.’ (Ladbrokes blog).
🗣️ Jakar Du Moulin is another who’ll enjoy Haydock’s drier ground. Trainer Paul Nicholls said: ‘He is fit and well, will love the ground…he is probably my best chance of the weekend.’ (Betfair blog).
🗣️ ‘He's undoubtedly the best colt we've trained.’ Trainer George Boughey on his 2,000 Guineas hope Bow Echo (Racing Post).
🗣️ ‘One horse that went very well that no-one is going to talk about is a horse called Port Of Spain.’ Trainer Aidan O’Brien following a gallop last Sunday (RacingTV).
Irish Grand National: What You Need To Know
The Irish Grand National is run over 3m5f - around 5f shorter than Aintree’s Grand National.
Last year it was won by Haiti Couleurs - the first British-trained winner since 2014.
Brown Lad won the race on three occasions in 1975, 1976 & 1978.
The biggest priced winner returned at 150/1 in 2021.
And, if you’re looking to back the 2026 winner, here are some clues…
► Age – Six to nine-year-olds - six-year-olds did best.
► Days – Last ran 21 to 180 days ago.
► Distance – A previous win over a maximum distance of 3m to 3m6f.
► Form – Ran in a chase over 2m5f to 3m2f last time.
► Track – Ran at either Leopardstown, Cheltenham, Fairyhouse, Punchestown or Limerick last time.
Avoid: Gordon Elliott-trained runners (1 win from 74 runners).
Our Irish Grand National shortlist: The Jukebox Kid, Argento Boy, Joystick, Weveallbeencaught.
What The Numbers Reveal
Okay, we’ve looked at the Irish Grand National, let’s now examine the weekend’s other big races.
Below are the Pros and Cons from previous winners’ profiles of these races.
These can include a horse’s age, odds, or winning form.
Use the clues to find the winner yourself, or head straight to the paddock short-list…
3.42 Musselburgh
SCOTTISH SPRINT CUP (Handicap), 5f
✅ Pros | ❌ Cons |
|---|---|
16/1 or shorter | Four-year-olds |
Ran in a handicap last time | Never won in last six runs |
Never ran in a Group 1 or Group 2 race | |
Stall 7 or higher |
Bonus Points For: Ran over 6f last time.
Paddock Shortlist: Eternal Sunshine, Archduke Ferdinand, Heavenly Heather
5.00 Fairyhouse
RYBO HANDICAP HURDLE, 2m
✅ Pros | ❌ Cons |
|---|---|
Won 0-1 races that season | Won during last three runs |
Ran in two or more handicap hurdles | Ran in a £10.5k or less race last time |
Won over 2m½f or further | |
Last ran 21 to 180 days ago | |
Trained by Willie Mullins |
Bonus Points For: Female runners, ran at Leopardstown or Naas last time.
Paddock Shortlist: Murcia, Hello Neighbour, Messerschmitt, Putapoundinthejar
4.25 Plumpton (Sunday)
SUSSEX CHAMPION HURDLE (Handicap), 2m
✅ Pros | ❌ Cons |
|---|---|
Top five in the betting | Won last time out |
French-bred runners (FR) | British-bred (GB) |
Won at least one handicap hurdle | |
Ran at Kelso last time |
Bonus Points For: Five to seven-year-olds. Trained by Paul Nicholls or Chris Gordon.
Paddock Shortlist: Indemnity, Serious Challenge, Inside Man
5.00 Fairyhouse (Sunday)
GOLD CUP, 2m4f
✅ Pros | ❌ Cons |
|---|---|
Six and seven-year-olds | Fitted with a tongue-tie |
Top four in the betting | |
Ran in a Grade 1 jumps race | |
Trained by Willie Mullins |
Bonus Points For: Failed to complete last time out (pulled up, fell, unseated).
Paddock Shortlist: Kappa Jy Pyke, Predators Gold
4.05 Plumpton (Monday)
SUSSEX NATIONAL (Handicap), 3m4½f
✅ Pros | ❌ Cons |
|---|---|
Ran 2-3 times during the last 90 days | Beaten 30L+ or didn’t complete last time |
Won 1-2 handicap chases | Fitted with a tongue-tie |
Seven and eight-year olds | Previously ran in the Sussex National |
Top four in the betting |
Bonus Points For: French-bred runners (FR).
Paddock Shortlist: Havaila, Sea Invasion
🧱 Bet Builder Club
Right on cue, here are Saturday’s diamonds in the rough to ‘make the frame’ 💎
We’ll leave it to you to choose how many places for those acca’s…
..but make sure to seek out those bookies with extended place odds 🔍
1.37 Haydock Atlantic City - Placed 3 times from 3 during February to May
1.48 Carlisle Ramo - Placed 5 times from 5 over 3m1f or further
2.12 Haydock Mr Mcloughlan - Placed 5 times from 7 racing within 30 days or less
2.30 Musselburgh Roaring Legend - Placed 7 times from 8 wearing cheekpieces
3.05 Musselburgh Wise Eagle - Placed 4 times from 5 over 1m6f at Musselburgh
5.00 Fairyhouse Karbau - Placed 2 times from 2 over 2m
5.12 Cork Wemightakedlongway - Placed 2 times from 2 at Cork
7.30 Wolverhampton Charmaine - Placed 5 times from 6 over 1m3f to 1m4f
8.30 Wolverhampton Lexington Express - Placed 2 times from 2 at Wolverhampton
The Traitors (Favourites To Avoid)
Not all favourites win.
Here are a few that may be worth taking on this weekend…
1.55 Musselburgh – Midnight Gun
Could get outpaced following a 146-day break down in trip from a wide draw.
2.23 Carlisle – Sattam
His best three runs came around 2m. This return to a testing 2m3½f may not suit.
Trainers To Follow
The team put forward Andrew Slattery this weekend, who trains over in Ireland.
Last weekend, Slattery had two winners (8/1 & 11/1) before another double on Monday (11/1 & 7/2), and added one more on Good Friday (11/4).
Slattery’s Saturday runners:
3.25 Cork – Merry Blacksmith
4.02 Cork – Powerful Nation
4.37 Cork – Expert Dancer
5.45 Cork – Sunrise Angel
Saturday’s Stat Sheet
For those of you who like to study the racecard, this sheet points up our researched angles for races in time order throughout Saturday.
Race | Past Winners’ Trends |
|---|---|
1.25 Musselburgh | 🕵️ Trainer: Charlie Johnston |
1.48 Carlisle | ⚖️ Weight: 10st7lb or heavier 🐴 Age: Six to nine-year-olds 🥉 Form: Ran at Ayr last time 🥉 Form: Won over 2m6½f to 3m1½f |
1.55 Musselburgh | 🐴 Age: Four and five-year-olds 🚦 Drawn in starting stalls 1 to 5 🏇 In-play: Front/prominent runners 🏁 Winning dist: ¾L 1¾L 1¾L 1¾L 1L |
2.12 Haydock | 🥉 Form: Top three last time out 🥇 Form: Won during last three runs 🏇 In-play: Front/prominent runners |
2.46 Haydock | 🐴 Age: Six and seven-year-olds 🥉 Form: Ran 5 to 11 times in the last year 🏇 In-play: Patiently-ridden runners |
3.05 Musselburgh | 🐴 Age: Five to seven-year-olds 🗓️ Days: 61 days or longer since last run 🎲 Odds: 7/1, 9/1, 11/1, 13/2, 4/1F, 10/1, 12/1 |
3.15 Fairyhouse | 🐴 Age: Seven and eight-year-olds ⚖️ Weight: 11st4lb or lighter 🕵️ Trainer: Tony Martin 🏇 In-play: Front/prominent runners |
3.50 Fairyhouse | 🏁 Winning dist: 3¼L, 7L, 4¼L, ½L, 4½L 🏇 In-play: Front/prominent runners |
4.02 Cork | 🚦 Drawn in starting stall 6 or higher |
4.25 Fairyhouse | 🎲 Odds: 18/1, 33/1, 10/3, 10/1, 8/1, 12/1, 10/1, 16/1, 9/1 |
5.12 Cork | 🎲 Odds: 7/4F, 3/1F, 22/1, 2/1F, 6/1, 5/2F, 7/1, 4/5F, 1/3F 🐴 Age: Four and five-year-olds 🕵️ Trainer: Paddy Twomey |
The Purist
With a 100% pure cocoa chocolate egg awaiting in the fridge, The Purist isn’t hanging around this week, leaving us with two for Saturday.
4.02 Cork - Bucanero Fuerte
The best horse in the race, goes well after a break and is nicely drawn.
8.30 Wolverhampton - Lexington Express
Blasted her way to victory here from the front last month and should get to lead again.
We Almost Forgot…
Since returning to Britain from Hong Kong in March, Flat jockey David Probert is starting to rack the winners up, including a double on Good Friday.
Former champion jumps jockey Sir Tony McCoy runs in this month’s London Marathon. But, will he stay the trip? 🏃
Thursday’s 300/1 winner at Kelso equalled the longest-priced UK winner. And no, the trainer never backed it 😯
📺 Quick TV Guide
► ITV (free): Saturday: Musselburgh 1.25, 1.55, 2.30, 3.05, 3.42; Haydock 2.12, 2.46, 3.20, 3.55 Monday: Kempton: 2.55, 3.30, 4.05, 4.40
► Sky Sports Racing (free): Saturday: Newton Abbot, Wolverhampton. Sunday: Bath, Plumpton, Southwell. Monday: Hereford, Plumpton, Wolverhampton
► Racing TV (subscription): Saturday: Carlisle, Haydock, Huntingdon, Musselburgh, Cork, Fairyhouse. Sunday: Market Rasen, Cork, Fairyhouse. Monday: Kempton, Fakenham, Cork, Fairyhouse
Next weekend is the big one.
It’s the weekend for either texting someone asking for the National winner, or in our team’s case, opening a text from someone asking for the winner 🤔
The team’s Aintree algorithm is already churning the numbers.
Until then…
..keep ‘em peeled 👀
The Paddock Report Team.