🏇 Irish Derby & Northumberland: The Full Report

How’s it going?

We thought last week’s Paddock Report was pretty decent.

Okay, The Purist’s good recent run came to an end, but Super Trends flagged up Royal Ascot winners at 20/1, 9/1, 2/1 & 7/4.

We'll take that.

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👉 Newcastle stage their biggest Flat meeting of the summer on Saturday - all seven races take place on the all-weather surface.

👉 The Northumberland Plate is Newcastle’s headline act (3.15) - the consolation race (runners that didn’t make the cut) is the Northumberland Vase (2.40).

👉 The Curragh’s big three-day meeting began on Friday and concludes with the Irish Derby on Sunday - a bit like Glastonbury.

👉 The Oaks winner Thundering On appears on Saturday at the Curragh - in the Pretty Polly Stakes.

👉 Ombudsman misses next weekend’s Coral-Eclipse at Sandown, but Constitution River may run.

On Newcastle’s Northumberland Plate day, favourites and clear second favourites did well since 2019 with 33 wins from 107 runs for a profit of £20 to £1 level stakes.

At the Curragh, there is no getting away from that man Aidan O’Brien. On the Saturday and Sunday of this meeting, his record in the Group races stood out:

Group races 15-69 +24 A/E 0.99
Other races 6-39 -24 A/E 0.75 

A name not many will know is the upcoming apprentice jockey Alexandra Egan, who still gets to claim a highly valuable 7lb off the saddle.

In the last two weeks, she had seven rides, with the following results:

1st of 7 - 12/1
3rd of 11 - 12/1
3rd of 13 - 22/1
18th of 30 - 50/1
1st of 7 - 15/8
4th of 6 - 17/2
1st of 7 - 10/11

By the time you read this, she'll have had another two rides at Newmarket’s Friday night meeting, and on Saturday she has two very live chances:

5.15 Windsor - She’s Crafty
6.15 Windsor - Kiniro

Trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam has hit really good form this week.

From May 1 to June 12, she had 2 wins from 42 runners
Since June 13, she’s had 4 wins from 16 runners - three of those since Monday, with one on Friday.

She doesn’t have many runners, with just Claymore at Windsor on Saturday (7.45), but she should be noted all of next week, where she has multiple entries.

Featuring the latest big-race roll of honour alongside ten-year trends analysis, our ‘Super Trends’ reveal the key stats for all the big races.

Use these trends to find your own selections, or if you’re short of time and can’t access a formbook, check our shortlist of three selections below each race.

🏅 Supido
🏅 Tremolo
🏅 Caviar Cowboy

🏅 Heavenly Heather
🏅 Ferrous
🏅 Poet Master

🏅 Believitanducan
🏅 Shrimp Shady
🏅 Chemistry

🏅 Synergism
🏅 Asgard’s Captain
🏅 Prydwen

The Purist passed on a message that he hopes some of you stuck with Dream Composer, who won at Windsor on Monday (6/1) after being recommended here on Epsom Derby day when running well from a bad draw.

Here’s who The Purist is backing on Saturday…

1.40 Newcastle - Bobby Bennu

Trainer Roger Varian has a good record at this meeting and remains in good form. Bobby Bennu made a nice return at Chester 28 days ago and is back down to a nice weight. He’s won on an artificial surface and looks to have been saved for this.

2.40 Newcastle - Shrimp Shady

Only one horse (Alphonse Le Grande) has ever attempted the Chester Plate/Northumberland Vase couple (both consolation races for the Chester Cup and Northumberland Plate), and it proved successful. Shrimp Shady ran a career best to win at Chester last month and won on an artificial surface in March.

3.33 Chester - Forty Years On

Forty Years On may have a bit to find on ratings in this classy Listed event for fillies, but past winners of the race (switched from Chelmsford) overcame the same swing. This filly really impressed when winning at Newbury 16 days ago and should go well from a good low draw on the inside in stall 2, assuming her jockey doesn’t give up that slot early on - over to you, Harry Davies.

3.45 Newcastle - Power Fizz

William Haggas is another trainer with a good record at the Northumberland meeting, and Power Fizz looks to have been kept aside for this since making it 4 wins in 8 races at Newcastle 92 days ago. He looks some way better than his current rating.

8.25 Lingfield - Drafted

Drafted caught my eye at Bath a few weeks ago when not getting the clearest of runs, and with his trainer Charlie Pike - excuse the phrase - ‘shitting winners’ at the moment, I’m expecting this reliable type to do well near the favourable stands’ rail - often the ‘golden highway’ on Lingfield’s straight course - think, Ascot. Hopefully, the jockey sits just in behind on the rail and strikes late instead of going down the middle.

We often list runners that looked unlucky and could gain compensation in the future, but this week, we have three recent winners that all look like they should be scoring again this summer.

Neyvas Angel (4yo)

Won from the front and looked better the further she went. She’s been upped 8lb to a rating of 81, which should help her get into some good races.

Cavolo Nero (4yo)

The application of blinkers helped Cavolo Nero produce a career best - just - but the narrow distance of this cosy win sees him just 2lb higher for next time. 

Metamouse (2yo)

This youngster got off the mark at the second attempt when doing well at Chester, which looked a decent race beforehand. He’s entered up at Salisbury on Tuesday.

Connections of Northumberland Plate hope Ride The Thunder told Racing TV: “Trip-wise it’s going to suit [the Northumberland], and he is an improving horse. He’s a bit of a plodder, but Newcastle will really suit him. Hopefully, there’s a little bit more to come from him. It would seem we’ve got him on quite an upward curve.”

📌 We kept this one back to ‘possibly’ reward those who’ve continued to scroll all the way down to the bottom of the Paddock Report. 

2.25 York - Boston Dan

We made a note of him at York last time when he was travelling well but didn’t get much room near the stands’ rail (watch the replay if you get the chance), before making some late ground. 

He’s been out of form, but the yard stated that he’s been treated for stomach ulcers, and that last run was encouraging. 

He may still need another run to hit his peak, and this sprint back at York on ITV is ferociously competitive, so don't expect too much, but the bookies have missed this fellow at 33/1, and we’ll certainly have a poke with each-way places down to the top 8.

► ITV (free): Newcastle: 1.40, 2.10, 2.40, 3.15, 3.45; York: 1.55, 2.25, 2.58

Next weekend is the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown - when the Classic generation take on their elders for the first time.

Until then…

..keep ‘em peeled 👀

The Paddock Report Team.

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