🏇 Ascot Victoria Cup: The Full Report

How’s it going?

Whoosh!...we're already hitting Week 7 of the Flat season (of 33 weeks).

The Guineas are done. The next buzzword is ‘Derby Trials’ – okay, that’s two words.

The Derby takes place on June 6, and this season’s narrative leading to Epsom is taking shape nicely…

The first two Classics went to Bow Echo (2,000 Guineas) and True Love (1,000 Guineas).

Bow Echo sticks to one mile and heads to Royal Ascot next month.

True Love also sticks to a mile for the Irish 1,000 Guineas in a fortnight.

Precise, a disappointing favourite in the 1,000, may also go to Ireland, with a step up in trip for the Epsom Oaks (1m4f) being mooted.

After winning at Chester in midweek, Amelia Earhart is the Oaks favourite at 7/2. She was an American aviator.

After winning at Chester in midweek, Benvenuto Cellini is the Derby favourite at 3/1. He was an Italian artist and sculptor.

Andrew Balding is the current top trainer in Britain with 24 winners.

Hollie Doyle is the current top jockey in Britain with 24 winners.

And, just like an Eastenders omnibus – without the shouting – you’re now up to date.

Next up, Saturday…

👉 Ascot’s Victoria Cup (2.20) is the big betting race of the afternoon.

👉 Lingfield stage a key Derby Trial (1.58), plus an Oaks Trial (1.28).

👉 Haydock have a rare mixed card over Flat and jumps, including the Swinton Hurdle (1.15)

👉 Low-key Flat racing takes place at Leicester and Nottingham.

👉 Summer jumps racing resumes at Hexham and Warwick.

👉 Naas stage their Oaks Trial (4.57) in Ireland, while Killarney go over jumps.

👉 On Sunday, Leopardstown stage their big Derby Trial (3.35)

With Derby Trials aplenty this month, these are the ones that mattered most – providing the last 30 Derby winners…

7 – Dante Stakes (York, May 15)
7 – 2,000 Guineas (Newmarket, May 2)
3 – Lingfield Derby Trial (May 9)
3 – Leopardstown’s Derby Trial (May 10)
3 – Chester Vase (May 6)
2 – Dee Stakes (May 7)
1 – Irish 2,000 Guineas (May 23)
1 – Ballysax Stakes (April 12)
1 – Doncaster Maiden (November)
1 – Prix Greffulhe (Saint-Cloud, May 5)
1 – Curragh Maiden (Covid, June)

The list shows that 27 of the last 30 Derby winners ran during the month of May, including the Dante Stakes, which takes place next Friday (more on that later).

Saturday’s Lingfield Derby Trial (1.58) has proven more fashionable in recent years, producing two Epsom Derby winners in 2021 and 2019, along with a runner-up in 2024.

Team O’Brien/Moore appear to again be in a good position pre-Epsom following a successful Chester…

The last 30 Oaks winners came from these trials…

5 – Musidora Stakes (York, May 13)
5 – Irish 1,000 Guineas (Curragh, May 24)
4 – Cheshire Oaks (Chester, May 6)
4 – Lingfield Oaks Trial (Lingfield, May 9)
3 – 1,000 Guineas (Newmarket, May 3)
3 – Pretty Polly Stakes (Newmarket, May 3)
2 – Fillies Trial Stakes (Newbury, May 16)
2 – Height of Fashion Stakes (Goodwood, May 23)
1 – Naas Oaks Trial (Naas, May 9)
1 – Salsalbil Stakes (Navan, April 25)

So, make sure to keep an eye out for this month’s trials, as there could be some ante-post value around ahead of Epsom.

You’ll like these…

1) Ascot: Six handicaps from seven races

Tread carefully at Ascot.

Handicaps at the biggest tracks are tricky, and there are six at Ascot on Saturday.

The Victoria Cup is a toughie, but we’ve got some stats for that race later on. Of the others, be mindful of the Fillies’ Handicap over a mile at 1.45 as no favourite triumphed since 2007.

In the final handicap on the card over 6f (4.40), our own resident racing guru, The Purist, has a few fancies for that sprint and the Victoria Cup.

2) Ascot: Placepot payouts

One positive to take from Ascot‘s trappy card is several chunky Placepot payouts in recent times.

To do a Placepot, simply select horses to place (finish in the top positions) in the first six races of a meeting. You win a share of a pool if your selections place in all six races – you don’t even need to find the winner 😮

The last three Placepot payouts on Victoria Cup day at Ascot were…

2025: £465.20
2024: £414.50
2023: £618.40

Good luck if having a crack.

3) Haydock: The jumps are back...kind of.

The summer jumps season throws up the odd valuable race for punters to chew on, and Haydock’s mixed card stages one such race via the Swinton Hurdle (1.15).

Based on past runnings of this hurdle, the following hard-and-fast rules could help produce a short-list – look for runners with these credentials…

4) Lingfield: Look for classy runners

Despite staging their Derby and Oaks Trial races, the most valuable race on the card at Lingfield is the Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes.

This Listed event over 7f is often won by classier horses with a higher official rating – in this case, those rated 100 or higher.

Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes – the last 10 years:

Officially rated 100+: 9 wins from 45 runners
Officially rated 99 or lower: 1 win from 39 runners

5) Nottingham: Follow favourites

This corresponding early-May meeting at Nottingham favoured clear favourites – they returned 21 wins from 49 runs for a profit of +£17 to a £1 stake.

Two trainers to note at Nottingham are Ed Bethell and William Haggas.

Now is also a good time to have a quick look at which trainers have their juveniles in good order – or ‘forward’ as paddock regulars say.

While distinguished yards like Aidan O’Brien have been amongst the two-year-old winners this term, the profits from such popular yards weren’t great.

Therefore, we recommended following trainers with a high A/E (actual/expected) – those that performed above their odds; anything above 1.00 is good (racing’s equivalent of xG in football).

Two-year-olds – Flat season 2026

Saturday’s two-year-olds from the recommended trainers are:

1.10 Ascot Romanza
5.25 Leicester My Normandie
5.25 Leicester Sea Mirage

Brace yourself for 29 runners bombing it down the Ascot Straight Course over 7f.

It’s a puzzle that needs some cracking.

But, based on the last 10 renewals of the Victoria Cup, these attributes were found amongst the majority of past winners…

Basic pointers:

Advanced pointers (formbook required):

Bonus points for:

We touched on the draw (starting stalls) last week when looking at Chester.

It’s a big factor in Flat racing, and every course is different.

Both of last weekend’s Guineas winners came from the higher stalls – Bow Echo in stall 15 and True Love in stall 16.

When runners split into two separate groups, as in the above 2,000 Guineas, one group can enjoy a distinct advantage – they could be on quicker ground, or they might have a stronger pace to chase, or even both.

The first two home in last weekend’s 2,000 Guineas (as arrowed) came from the right-hand side group (middle to high stalls).

These biases occur all the time. Here are a few that may emerge on Saturday…

Naas

The 17-runner 5f handicap at 2.03 went to high-numbered stalls in four of the last five years: 12, 19, 22, 17.

Ascot

Middle distances of 1m2f and 1m4f in races at Ascot with a decent-sized field can count against the low numbers, with middle to high stalls favoured.

Saturday’s 1m4f handicap (2.55) has 15 runners. In the past when this race attracted 10 or more runners, the winning stalls were:

Stall 9 (10 runners)
Stall 11 (14 runners)
Stall 4 (16 runners)
Stall 14 (14 runners)
Stall 6 (10 runners)
Stall 11 (11 runners)
Stall 8 (12 runners)

Not all favourites win, and here are several worth taking on…

1.15 Haydock Tellherthename

Three best career efforts came on right-handed tracks, but his record going left-handed is 0-6 (all unplaced).

4.25 Lingfield Tuscan Point

May not enjoy Lingfield’s straight track (0-9), the good to firm ground (0-3), or the class of race (0-11).

5.35 Warwick Sweet Nightingale

Last ran 15 days ago, but has a record of 0-6 when reappearing within 15 days (all unplaced).

6.47 Hexham Breadalbane Lass

Won at Perth last time, which is right-handed, but her record going left-handed, like Hexham, is 0-9 (all unplaced).

7.55 Leicester Oasis Sunshine

Won at Bath (left-handed) from a handicap mark of 54 two weeks ago. Her record away from a left-handed track is 0-4, while her record off a handicap mark of 55 or higher is 0-13.

Poor old Purist, another runner-up last week and two non-runners! 😢

Could this be the week a spark is struck? 🔥

He sounded very Danny Dyer when asked what he thought of Saturday’s action, replying, ‘let’s have it’.

Here’s who The Purist is backing on Saturday…

12.55 Lingfield Twisting Physics

Caught the eye at Newbury last month when finishing strongly over 1m2f, but was a non-runner when selected here last weekend. Has ideal conditions to get off the mark for the season.

2.20 Ascot Storm Free & Shafdar

The Victoria Cup is a tough nut to crack, so a two-pronged attack is the way to go.

Storm Free is improving and shaped on his reappearance at Newmarket last month, like he can win a big handicap. He was also badly drawn on that occasion – interestingly, another runner that was also not well drawn that day, Arjet, came out to finish second at Chester in midweek.

Shafdar is another improver who won at Epsom only 11 days ago. He seemed to win with a bit in hand that day when coming from behind, and is nicely drawn in this race from stall 13 to attack from behind off a strong pace.

3.15 Lingfield Mr Swivell

A winner of three races in 2025 when up with the pace, there is a chance Mr Swivell may actually get the run of things from the front on his reappearance. Although he hasn’t run in 224 days, this five-year-old ran well on his seasonal return last spring when a close runner-up, and his yard are currently in top form.

3.25 Nottingham Leadenhall

Won a similar race at Haydock last summer before going up the weights, but has dropped back down. Shaped on his return at Pontefract like he’s ready to win again.

4.40 Ascot Dicko The Legend & True Promise

Another trappy handicap requiring a two-pronged attack. Middle to high stalls could be favoured, and if so, Dicko The Legend (stall 18) could be coming through strongly at the end, while True Promise (stall 12) shaped well on good to firm ground last time and will enjoy the return to 6f.

8.25 Leicester Sharma d’Amour

Did well to finish runner-up at Bath a month ago from a wide draw, and is back to a similar weight as when winning this time last year. The yard is in good form, and the talented apprentice Jack Nicholls takes a handy 5lb off the saddle.

Similar to the Chester May Festival which just took place, next Wednesday sees York’s three-day Dante Festival.

We researched some stats, and one stood out. In fact, our jaws dropped 🤯

Trainer Andrew Balding’s record in Group/Listed races at this meeting since 2017 was an impressive 8 wins from 18 runs for a +£58 profit to a £1 stake.

There were also four runners-up at 16/1, 14/1, 10/1 & 10/3.

You know what to do.

Two other trainers to note are William Haggas and his three to four-year-olds, plus Ed Bethell in handicaps.

📌 The Paddock Report Team have a couple of in-form trainers to keep onside during the next week.

Jumps trainer Nicky Richards had a break at the end of the jumps season but returned with two runners at Kelso on Wednesday and both won. He has four entered at Hexham on Saturday.

George Baker increased his number of runners since the end of April. The form of his last seven runners since April 30 are:

May 6 – 2nd of 14 (18/1)
May 4 – 1st of 8 (6/5)
May 4 – 1st of 10 (13/2)
May 4 – 3rd of 10 (3/1)
May 4 – 3rd of 9 (33/1)
Apr 30 – 4th of 10 (50/1)
Apr 30 – 1st of 8 (6/4)

Baker’s runners are clearly outperforming their odds, and he has a few entries over the weekend, along with several at Windsor on Monday.

We’re pretty pleased with this edition – what do you think?

Agree, disagree – let us know 📊👇

And after clicking the poll, feel free to suggest what you’d like included next week.

Until then…

..keep ‘em peeled 👀

The Paddock Report Team.